Right-leaning video platform Rumble may be a far-and-away “David” to Youtube’s “Goliath,” but when it comes to growth, Rumble shines as a not-to-be-ignored powerhouse that is quickly picking up speed — especially in North America.
Though the Donald Trump indictment took center stage for mainstream news on March 30th, it was Rumble’s Q4 earnings that analysts were paying attention to.
Rumble’s Q4 earnings revealed a massive year-over-year growth track, outpacing most other social media giants, especially leading video platform Youtube. Let’s dig into the differences between Rumble and Youtube, as well as two areas where Rumble outshines the competition, and one area that it doesn’t. Ultimately, we’ll ask the question: Could Rumble become a real competitor to Youtube?
First, let’s take a broad overview.
_
Rumble vs. Youtube: Differences, Similarities, Stats
Rumble and Youtube are direct competitors with one another. In their simplest form, they are video platforms that allow users to post their own video content. Even their functionality is largely the same. However, there are a few key things that separate Rumble from Youtube. Let’s compare and contrast the two businesses.
Rumble and Youtube Similarities
- Both platforms are free to join, allow the free viewing of videos, and the free upload of videos as well
- Both platforms offer paid memberships
- Both platforms allow videos to be freely embedded outside of their home websites
- Both platforms allow monetization
_
Rumble and Youtube Differences
- The most notable difference between the two platforms is on the topic of censorship and demonetization. Youtube is notorious for its strict censorship policies (statistics on that below), which reach beyond things like copyright infringement into things like ideological censorship through tags like “misinformation.” Youtube retains the right to delete any video it disagrees with, and isn’t legally required to give a material reason why. Youtube also frequently demonetized videos that cover politically sensitive topics, and has even automatically removed subscribers from certain channels without permission of the users. Rumble, on the other hand, makes it their mission statement to avoid censorship at all costs, as long as the material in question is legal.
- Youtube’s server speed is second to none, meaning uploads and streaming will almost always be faster through this platform than Rumble.
- Youtube requires creators to have reached 1,000 subscribers and 4,000 minutes of watch time — Rumble allows for immediate monetization.
- Youtube’s search algorithm is guided, meaning particular voices and businesses have a higher likelihood of receiving organic traffic than most small time creators — particularly those who release “edgy” content. Rumble’s search is a simpler calculation, and is intended to be unguided, meaning small creators have the same potential to receive organic search traffic as large creators.
Level Up Your Trading
Get a custom-designed trading program tailored to your individual needs, skill level, and schedule.
Rumble vs. Youtube: Monthly Active User Growth
In Q4 of 2022, Rumble’s MAU’s (monthly active users) surged 142% YoY from 33 million to 80 million — a record level of growth for the burgeoning company.
Compare that to Youtube’s 2021 Q4 to 2022 Q4 growth of just 3.2% (2.598B vs. 2.681B according to the BoA).
This acceleration is huge, but don’t get too excited — Rumble has a long runway ahead if it seeks to catch up to Youtube’s widespread user base. The world’s leading video platform has 33.5X more users than Rumble. The size difference should come as no surprise — as of December 2022, Youtube was the second most visited site in the world.
While an increase in Rumble MAU’s could help drive content creators to explore the platform as a Youtube alternative, that’s only half of the battle. For investors and analysts, Rumble needs to prove it can quickly generate revenue.
Rumble vs. Youtube: Revenue Growth
Rumble revealed exponential year-over-year revenue growth, from just $2.9M in Q4 of 2021 to $19.9M in Q4 of 2022. This represents an increase of 686.2% over just one year.
Compare that to Youtube, which saw a 2021-to-2022 YoY decline in revenue during its Q4 earnings. The Alphabet sub-business raked in a record $8.633B in revenue during Q4 of 2021, compared to a still massive $7.963B in Q4 of 2022.
If you thought Youtube’s 33.5X multiple on Rumble’s MAU’s was steep, the difference in revenue is even steeper. Despite Youtube’s 2022 decrease, the video giant still took in 400-times the amount of revenue that Rumble received in Q4.
However, for investors in Rumble, it isn’t about the size of Youtube’s lead, it’s about the speed at which Rumble is closing the gap. That’s an area where Rumble shines. Rumble’s year-over-year revenue growth of 686% not only outpaces Youtube’s current statistics, but it outpaces any year-over-year revenue growth metric for Youtube spanning as far back as 2015.
Let us show you how to find Unusual Options Activity
Everything you’ve ever wanted to know about Unusual Options Activity—in one convenient insider’s guide.
Rumble vs. Youtube: Market Cap
Since Youtube is a sub-business of Alphabet (originally purchased for just $1.65 billion dollars in 2006), it doesn’t have an exact market cap like Rumble does. However, following the split of Alibaba, and amid pressure from antitrust authorities in the U.S. & abroad, analysts have long considered what the valuation of Youtube would be as a standalone business.
According to Needham analyst Laura Martin, Youtube could receive a fair value of $300 billion. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the value is closer to $160 billion. An analysis from Howie Mann places the value at $180 billion. Using an average of these three figures, we can estimate a rough market cap to be around $213 billion.
On the other hand, finding Rumble’s market cap is a much simpler affair. Since Rumble is a publicly traded stock, it has a publicly listed market cap. As of March 2020, Rumble’s market cap is $2.7 billion.
Unsurprisingly (and in-line with the figures above), Rumble’s market cap is significantly smaller than Youtube’s — by a rough factor of 79 times. And unlike the factors above, this is an area where Rumble hasn’t been growing. Rumble’s market cap is lower by -16.06% over the past year, and is lower currently than it was when Rumble initially IPO’d. Somewhat surprisingly, Youtube-parent Alphabet’s market cap has shrunk even more significantly over the past year, by -27.54%.
Why is that surprising? Because 2022 saw a culling of stocks that were not yet profitable. And while Youtube is profitable, Rumble is not.
Rumble vs. Youtube: Profitability
Alphabet only recently began releasing earnings data on their individual business segments, and while they have specified Youtube’s quarterly revenue, they have stopped short of providing EPS data for the video platform. However, as an altogether business, Alphabet is profitable — in its last quarter, Alphabet produced an earnings per share of $1.05.
Compare that to Rumble, who only this quarter managed to break even on GAAP EPS, delivering $0.00 earnings per share. Of course, the caveat is that Rumble is a very new company, and (like many “growth” companies) is focused on spending its revenue to build the business, rather than delivering that revenue to shareholders. Still, in an uncertain economic environment where rates are rising fast, many investors are wary of buying into unprofitable businesses.
The Bottom Line: Accelerating, but a Long Road Ahead
Rumble’s quick acceleration isn’t a fluke — despite the stigma it has received from mainstream media, the platform has set itself apart from Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, and most other social media platforms for one simple reason: Rumble is an unquestionably better platform for creators and viewers who are concerned about free speech, shadow banning, or demonetization. This isn’t a biased point of view. Youtube, on the other hand, has made no attempt to hide their efforts to delete content they dislike. It’s part of their Terms of Service. Rumble has simply made it their mission not to delete content unless it is clearly illegal or infringes a copyright.
That might seem enticing to content creators looking for a little extra creative freedom, however it comes at a price — Rumble’s small size and the current politicized stigma that surrounds the company has made it definitely less profitable for its largest creators. Pound for pound, Youtube’s “mega-influencers” are putting more eyeballs in front of more ads, and getting more clicks, which means they’re going to get paid more than anybody on Rumble’s platform.
On the other hand, Rumble allows anyone to immediately receive monetization on their videos. That can be very enticing for “micro-influencers” who have trouble breaking above Youtube’s steep monetization threshold. In other words, Rumble will always be more profitable for content creators who have less than 1,000 subscribers and less than 4,000 hours of total watch time — because Youtube does not pay those creators. And of course, if Rumble continues to grow, having an early seat at the table is likely to be viewed as its own tangible benefit.
_
_
Get real-time market insights from Market Rebellion co-founders Jon & Pete Najarian, options education from professional traders, and more on the Market Rebellion Youtube channel. Click the image below to subscribe.
_
One area Rumble is not growing in: the international space. Only 15% of Youtube’s audience comes from America, with its second largest audiences based in Japan and India. Contrarily, 81% of Rumble’s audience comes from North America. International viewership is one area where Rumble isn’t really accelerating. This is possibly due to the fact that Rumble’s largest contingent comes from American conservatives. Rumble will need to branch out further if it wants to compete with Youtube on a global scale.
Still, for investors looking for an early stage competitor against the goliath that is Youtube, Rumble is likely the best candidate. While it’s true that alternatives like Dailymotion and Vimeo do exist, they both publicly follow the same rough guidelines about content removal as Youtube, making it tough for these companies to truly “stand out” as anything other than a subpar version of Youtube.
It’s also important to remember that Rumble doesn’t have to dethrone Youtube as the top video platform in order to be a success. There’s plenty of money to be made in being the Bing to Alphabet’s Google — especially for a company with such a small market cap. But to even get there, Rumble has a long, long road ahead, and it can’t afford to slow down any time soon.
