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Alternative data and unusual activity wins in $GRUB

We’ve been Beta testing our unusual option activity and alternative data powered by BattleFin for the past 3 months. We’ve narrowed the focus with some awesome results, such as two fantastic calls, one bearish, one bullish on Netflix (NFLX) and have expanded beyond our initial sample group to a much larger set of stocks. The […]

By Jon Najarian · October 29, 2019

We’ve been Beta testing our unusual option activity and alternative data powered by BattleFin for the past 3 months. We’ve narrowed the focus with some awesome results, such as two fantastic calls, one bearish, one bullish on Netflix (NFLX) and have expanded beyond our initial sample group to a much larger set of stocks.

The results are promising indeed, as you’ll see from last night’s (10/28) bearish call in GrubHub (GRUB).

We had unusual option activity (UOA) in the weekly November 1st expiry 55 puts, where some 2,800 puts changed hands for $1.70 to $2.20 per contract. That was posted to our UOA prior to noon yesterday:

 

 

MarketRebellion also had results from our partner BattleFin that likewise reflected a bearish outlook for shares of GRUB. The BattleFin partner SimilarWeb, a web analytics company that offers its customers information on their clients’ and competitors’ website traffic volumes; referral sources, including keyword analysis; and website “stickiness” had some extremely bearish things to say about the food delivery company.

 

The data that SimilarWeb produced showed that GRUB was losing web traffic share to DoorDash and Postmates.  

 

Lastly, food delivery as tracked by Android monthly DAU by SimilarWeb showed both UberEats and DoorDash crushing GRUB by a large margin.
 
After the bell last night (10/28) GRUB posted in-line profits, but missed on revenue and lowered guidance considerably. 
 
Shares fell to $41.35 in the post, a drop of 29% that pushed up the in-the-money value of our November 55 puts to nearly $14.