Impressive Returns in Moderna Calls

Option traders are posting exponential gains in upside positions on Moderna (MRNA) today.

On Jan. 14, our Unusual Activity Service identified significant bullish call buying, with 2,500 23January 42 calls bought for $1.59-$1.81 above the existing open interest of 251 contracts, with MRNA shares trading at $41.07-$41.43.

Those 23January 42 calls traded as high as $12.65 today with the stock at $54.67, delivering extraordinary returns of approximately 644.12% from the initial midpoint entry price of $1.70. Meanwhile, MRNA shares gained approximately 32.53% from their initial midpoint trading level around $41.25, demonstrating how options can deliver dramatically amplified returns compared to simply owning the underlying stock.

This performance illustrates the exceptional power of options leverage when the directional thesis proves correct, though it’s important to note that this same leverage can work against traders when market moves go in the opposite direction.

Five-Year Cancer Vaccine Data Transforms Oncology Narrative

The catalyst driving MRNA’s explosive rally came on January 20, 2026, when Moderna and Merck announced landmark five-year follow-up data from the Phase IIb KEYNOTE-942 trial. The analysis showed that intismeran autogene (formerly mRNA-4157/V940), a personalized cancer vaccine, in combination with Merck’s Keytruda continued to reduce the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 49% compared to Keytruda alone—maintaining the exact same risk reduction seen at the three-year mark.

The durability of the effect represents a critical “maintenance of effect” milestone. Recurrence-free survival rates at five years stood at 75.3% for patients receiving the vaccine-Keytruda combination versus 55.6% for those on Keytruda monotherapy. Overall survival rates also favored the combination at 83.4% versus 76.8%. For patients with stage III/IV melanoma, who face high recurrence rates even after successful surgery, this five-year window is widely considered a “functional milestone” for potential cure.

Analysts from William Blair noted that this stability suggests the personalized vaccine successfully reprograms the adaptive immune system for long-term surveillance. The data triggered a market revaluation of Moderna’s entire oncology platform, with the stock surging over 15% on the announcement as investors recognized that mRNA technology—honed during the COVID-19 pandemic—could extend its reach into chronic diseases like cancer.

Strong 2025 Results and 2026 Guidance Provide Foundation

The cancer data announcement built on positive momentum established just days earlier. On January 13, 2026, Moderna reported better-than-expected preliminary 2025 results at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, with revenue of $1.9 billion—$100 million above the previously outlined midpoint guidance—while forecasting operating expenses about $200 million below past estimates.

More importantly, management reaffirmed plans to deliver up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 and achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. CEO Stephane Bancel emphasized that “in 2025, we strengthened our commercial execution, successfully launched our third product, and continued to advance our mRNA pipeline. At the same time, we reduced our annual operating expenses by approximately $2 billion, significantly exceeding the financial cost reduction commitments we set at the start of the year.”

The company’s cost discipline provides crucial runway to fund its oncology and rare disease pipelines. For 2026, Moderna expects operating expenses of $4.2 billion to $4.6 billion—dramatically lower than the nearly $6.5 billion spent in 2024. This aggressive cost cutting, combined with revenue growth from its seasonal vaccine franchise and government partnerships with Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia, positions Moderna to achieve sustainable profitability even as COVID-19 vaccine sales normalize.

Flu Vaccine Regulatory Filings Expand Commercial Portfolio

Adding to the positive narrative, Moderna announced that regulatory filings for its seasonal influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010, are underway across major markets including the U.S. and EU, with successful Phase 3 trials demonstrating efficacy. If approved in 2026 as anticipated, the flu vaccine could begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027, diversifying Moderna beyond its COVID-19 dependence.

The flu vaccine represents a critical bridge product—leveraging proven mRNA technology in a massive addressable market ($6+ billion annually for seasonal flu vaccines) while the company’s more ambitious oncology programs advance through late-stage development. Management’s strategy centers on building “a large seasonal vaccine franchise for at-risk populations, creating a strong cash engine to fund our next phase of innovation in oncology and rare disease.”

Eight Oncology Trials Create Multiple Phase 3 Catalysts

Beyond melanoma, Moderna and Merck are aggressively expanding the intismeran autogene platform across multiple tumor types. Eight Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trials are now underway, including:

Two Phase 3 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) studies evaluating adjuvant treatment in completely resected patients. A fully enrolled Phase 3 trial in adjuvant melanoma (INTerpath-001), with interim data potentially expected later in 2026. Phase 2 studies in renal cell carcinoma (fully enrolled), bladder cancer (muscle-invasive and non-muscle invasive), metastatic melanoma, and metastatic squamous NSCLC.

The breadth of the clinical program demonstrates management’s confidence in the platform’s applicability across cancer types. Each of these trials represents a potential value inflection point, with Phase 3 data in lung cancer potentially arriving as soon as late 2026 or early 2027. Successful readouts could establish Moderna as a leader in personalized cancer immunotherapy—a market projected to exceed $100 billion by 2030.

The convergence of the landmark five-year melanoma data on January 20th, strong 2025 financial results and 2026 guidance on January 13th, ongoing flu vaccine regulatory filings, and multiple Phase 3 oncology catalysts created an ideal environment for the January 23rd call options to capture extraordinary upside. The timing of the call buying on January 14th at 11:06 AM—positioned just six days before the transformational cancer data announcement—demonstrates the strategic nature of the unusual options activity that preceded one of Moderna’s most significant revaluations since the COVID-19 pandemic.

MRNA was last up 5.94% at $52.77.