RPP Newsletter – July 28th, 2026

 

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Please note our weekly Rebel Pit Pro webinar will be held on Tuesdays at 9:00 AM ET. If you miss the live session(s), replays will be posted in the ‘Webinars’ tab.

 

The Trade:

NVIDIA Corporation - NVDA- $196.51 Last Price

Buy the July 31st (31July26) expiration 200.00 call for roughly $3.60

with the stock above the $199.89 Level (Flat Line) in an up (bullish) market.

OR

Buy the July 31st (31July26) expiration 195.00 put for roughly $3.75

with the stock below the $195.44 Level (Flat Line) in a down (bearish) market.

 

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  Fundamentals: NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company'S products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California. On the Upside: Target Resistance levels are up at: $201.79, $203.59, $206.70. These are levels at which trimming/rolling/combi, and closing for profits can be considered. On the Downside: Target Support levels are down at: $193.99, $192.96 (200 SMA currently), $189.80. These are levels at which trimming/rolling/combi, and closing for profits can be considered. NVDA's Daily ATR is $7.69 while the Weekly ATR is $15.36.

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Commentary: As covered in this past Weekend's Video 📺, the market appears to be on the ropes and it likely would need news of some kind to avert more selling. Well...that didn't take long! US-IRAN news hit the tape before Monday's opening rolled around and that ignited about a 2% pop higher in the SPYs. Unforunately for bulls, that rally was sold into nearly immediately and quite heavily, leaving nearly all four of the major index ETFs just about back where they came from near Friday's close. Despite it sounding repetitive, we must note that GEOPOL news and other factors related to the AI Trade continue to create volatility within the market with many more investors and traders now NOT IGNORING some of the questions regarding the crowded AI Trade. SMH is again near (for us) a key support line that, should it fail, would likely bring about more selling in that key space and possibly the market overall. To all this we can add that the EPS & News calendars will be extremely loaded with fresh releases that could also lead to volatility. Naturally, SMH remains one our the key watches along with the USD/JPY. The latter is in the midst of a breakout attempt while the former is playing with techical fire. It looks conerning heading into tomorrow's session but we must not rule out a Turnaround Tuesday news could shift the mood very quickly and forcefully. As is normally the case, in this past Weekend's Video 📺, Market Breadth and Sector Views were covered and, objectively, they're not looking all that well on balance along with SMH and MTUM still getting roughed up while a beaten down MAGS is fighting to tread water, though EPS Releases could provide some tonic. Regardless, at this very moment,  there's little leading this market up at the moment aside from what appears to be some defensive rotation. We again we note that the $DXY, TNX (10 Year Yield), USD/JPY - are near or back to potentially concerning levels, something traders may not want to lose sight of for long. We strongly urge Rebels to keep a close eye on these if they're moving higher and SMH et al. are persisting in moving lower as the market may not be able to ignore those developments much longer if EPS or News can't be used to goose! Swans: Black, Gray and White or put another way, NEWS Developments. The Trump administration nearly constantly produces new news some of which is very surprising, so be ready for anything! That applies for this week and likely well beyond! And it may not only be the Trump administration with the current state of affairs in the world! NVDA is our focus name of the week. NVDA was hit hard today to open the week. The AI Trade is coming under more scrutiny and competitive pressure from China. The stock is now just a little above the 200 SMA from which it could try to bounce or breakdown below it which would potentially surprise many. With NVDA not reporting until later in August, IV levels are fairly reasonable give the movement potential. Pending EPS Reactions will likely impact the market and possibly NVDA this week so stay on top of those! NVDA seems capable of going Risk On or Risk Off in the current mix which could mean a good bounce or more harrowing dip. The options' cost vs. the ATR(s) is one of the few that can make the cut, mainly due to EPS elevating IV levels in many stocks. Of course, GeoPol news could change momentum quickly in all directions at any time! Keep the impact of the news cycle in mind when managing this week!  Reminder: Trade the market that's in front of us! NVDA normally offers excellent options market liquidity in which to transact. Risk: The total risk is the amount spent on the call or the put at the time you trigger the trade. What you spend is the most you can lose! Reward: Our reward will be in the increase in the value of our calls or puts from the trigger price to the target prices or your chosen exit price … whatever comes first. Stop Price:  Our call stop will be the stock trading (closing) back down below $199.89. Our put stop will be the stock trading back up (closing) above $195.44.  Notes 1 – It is important that we remember that this has the potential of being a two-way trade depending on market direction and commitment. Notes 2 – Don’t forget to use RPP Risk Calculation  Bonus Names: GOOGL, PLTR, NOW.   Please note our weekly Rebel Pit Pro webinar will be held on Tuesdays at 9:00 AM ET. If you miss the live session(s), replays will be posted in the ‘Webinars’ tab. Market Outlook

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Please note our weekly Rebel Pit Pro webinar will be held on Tuesdays at 9:00 AM ET. If you miss the live session(s), replays will be posted in the ‘Webinars’ tab. Options School

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Please note our weekly Rebel Pit Pro webinar will be held on Tuesdays at 9:00 AM ET. If you miss the live session(s), replays will be posted in the ‘Webinars’ tab.