Good Afternoon REBELS! 

It was not a great week last week and we are heading into a very busy week with earnings and Fed announcements.  XLY was down with AMZN and TSLA as the two largest weights(23.47%, 16.08%). XLC was down with the 3 largest weights down big: META 18.48%, GOOGL 10.04%, GOOG 8.11%. Even with T and VZ up over 5%, they could not help(potential breakouts)!  Crypto(IBIT) held it’s own with an unchanged week and we had small positive movement out of the metals and mining.

Note: Click on Charts to see a larger view!

MATERIALS

This popped this week mostly on Uranium moving up on comments from the administration, but they also gave back a little on Thursday and Friday.  The metals stayed up with small net positive on the week.

FINANCIALS

JPM led the charge on the week with BAC and PGR in close 2nd and 3rd.  HOOD was down the most with earnings coming this week.  AXP was down big on Friday with Earnings, so this could be one to watch.  AFRM was lousy all week and finished near the lows of the week.  Another one that could be at a critical spot! These will be closely watch with the Fed decision this week on Wednesday at 2PM!

UTILITIES

With the broad market under pressure, traders turn to utilities for safety in cash flow. These found a small bid this week. DUK, SO, AEP and XEL all up roughly 2%  VST down with Hyperscalers on Friday

 

SEMIs

Memory names were the strength this week as South Korea margin calls subsided.  This didn’t help the broad selling that came in Thursday and into Friday to close the week down for majority of the semi names.  There are a lot of names reporting this week.  See below earnings for Semi names with their expected implied moves to watch!

 

SOFTWARE

Cyber security stocks(PANW and CRWD) let the IGV ETF to the downside.  The only net positive was INTU which looks to be ignoring the selling pressure on daily. PLTR and ORCL continue to look weak.

 

QQQ TOP 10 

It’s hard for the market to move when you have most of your big weighted names in the top 10 moving lower.  TSLA, GOOGL, GOOG, META, AMZN all underperformed the QQQ while AAPL and the semiconductors were net positive on the week! We will have to watch this week for the rest of the hyper scalers earnings to compare cash flow and off balance sheet liability increases.

CASH FLOW MATTERS

MIDTERM SEASONALITY 

Still leaving this in here for obvious reasons!

VIX 

VIX  with the market down, the VIX is hovering around its 200 SMA. High of the week was Thursday of 20.31. It will most likely hang in between the 50 and 200 SMA as long as earnings are in line with expectations!

EARNINGS CALENDAR

There are 768 companies reporting this week.  We took the  25 largest in the morning and afternoon to provide a snapshot of potential movement. Big weighted names like MSFT, META(Wed.) and AAPL &  AMZN(Thurs.) will be big drivers of the market.
The Semi space has multiple names with large implied movement:
Monday: AMKR 24%, SANM 20.7%, RMBS 23.8%
Tuesday: GLW 12.6, KLAC 21.4%, STX 14.4%, NXPI 14.9%, TER 16.3%, BE 27%, SWKS 15.3%
Wednesday: UMC 20%, FLEX 20.6%, LRCX 12.8%, ARM 15.2%, QCOM 9.7%
Thursday: MPWR 19.2%
( I may have missed some!)

Before Market(B- Orange), Aftermarket (A-White Background)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

All sourced from TradetheNews.com

Monday:
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jun Preliminary Durable Goods Orders; Durables Ex-Transportation
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jun Preliminary Capital Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air; Capital Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air
10:30EDT/15:30BST US Jul Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
11:30EST/16:30BST US Treasury’s 6 Month Bill Auction
11:30EDT/16:30BST US Treasury’s 2 Year Note Auction
13:00EDT/18:00BST US Treasury’s 3 Month Bill Auction
13:00EDT/18:00BST US Treasury’s 5 Year Note Auction

Tuesday:
08:15EDT/13:15BST US Weekly ADP Employment Change
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jun Advance Goods Trade Balance; Advance Goods Imports; Advance Goods Exports
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jun Retail Inventories; Wholesale Inventories
08:55EDT/13:55BST US Redbook Retail Sales
09:00EDT/14:00BST US May FHFA House Price Index
09:00EDT/14:00BST US May S&P Cotality CS 20-City; S&P Cotality CS HPI
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jul Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index; Richmond Fed Business Conditions
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jul Conference Board Consumer Confidence; Conference Board Present Situation; Conference Board Expectations
10:30EDT/15:30BST US Jul Dallas Fed Services Activity
13:00EDT/18:00BST US Treasury’s 7 Year Note Auction
16:30EDT/21:30BST API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
TBD US President Trump meets with Israeli PM Netanyahu (Washington, DC)
TBD US President Trump meets with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy (Washington, DC)

Wednesday:
07:00EDT/12:00BST US MBA Mortgage Applications
10:30EDT/15:30BST DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
11:30EDT/16:30BST US Treasury’s 2 Year FRN Auction
13:30EDT/18:30BST Canada BOC Summary of Deliberations
14:00EDT/19:00BST US FOMC Interest Rate Decision
14:30EDT/19:30BST US Fed Chair Warsh Post-Rate Decision Press Conference 

Thursday:
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jun Personal Income; Personal Spending; Real Personal Spending
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jun PCE Price Index; Core PCE Price Index
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Q2 Advance Personal Consumption
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Q2 Advance GDP Annualized; GDP Price Index
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims
10:30EDT/15:30BST DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:30EDT/16:30BST US Treasury’s 4 and 8 Week Bill Auction

Friday:
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Q2 Employment Cost Index
09:45EDT/14:45BST US Jul MNI Chicago PMI
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jul Final U of Michigan Sentiment; U of Michigan Current Conditions; U of Michigan Expectations; U of Michigan 1-Year Inflation; U of Michigan 5-10 Year Inflation
11:00EDT/16:00BST Mexico Jun Net Outstanding Loans
15:00EDT/20:00BST US Jun Agricultural Prices Paid; Agriculture Prices Received

MACRO MEASURE from WAYNE RAZZI

Click image below to watch video!

 

LEVELS – LARGE ETFS from @RYANMASTRO5

The week ahead:

Earnings will be largest driver of volatility this week.  Large market cap stocks will be under pressure with the the lack of cash flow and future off book liabilities.  The next event that could be volatile will be the FED interest rate decision.  There a several auctions (Mon 2Y &5Y ,Tues.- 7Y ,W 2FRN) that could help the Fed with their decision making progress.  Oil has jumped again with Brent reaching over $100, so all eyes are back watching the administration for further guidance on the next move.  This is the unpredictable wild card that could hurt or help the market out at the strangest times. Trump has potential meetings with Netanyahu and Zelensky on Tuesday, so maybe there is some positive news that helps the markets on Wednesday!

We are approaching critical levels in the broad markets(see above)! If we do break down further, then some type of portfolio protection could be put into place.  QQQs already through the 6/9 low(critical) so Friday’s low is one to watch($682.48), IWM trying to hold the 50 SMA, SPY holding Thursday’s low($735.21) and DIA holding the 50 SMA.

Good Luck this Week!