Good Afternoon REBELS! 

Tech was under pressure but did bounce.  The bounce came mainly from the “Leo Low”.  This was the a hedge fund (Situational Awareness) that blew out from leverage and was taken out by Citadel.  This marked a clear low that is being coined for the founder of the hedge fund, Leopold Aschenbrenner.  The XLY finished the week strong with it’s largest component of 22.91%, AMZN, having a 15.32% move on Friday. XLE moved higher on earnings from XOM and CVX which combined, accounts for 36% of the ETF. XOM was down small while CVX was up 2.35%. XLC was up small for the week. This is after both GOOGL and META’s earnings.  GOOGL had a large move on Friday up 6.73% while META was 2nd day post earnings and had a nice recovery up 3.28%. Homebuilders were the weakest sector after the rally in SMH from the Wednesday low.  THE XHB doesn’t have a large component that dominates the weight so this was a broader pullback in this space!

 

Note: Click on Charts to see a larger view!

 

QQQ Top 10

The market had a great bounce from the Leo low that was helped by large moves in MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL.  AAPL and META were the bad guys with earnings that disappointed Wall Street.  GOOGL had earnings in the prior week, but closed the week up 9%.  Semiconductors were down small after a nice recovery from the low.  NVDA was below its 200 SMA at the low close of the week to rally and close back above the 100 SMA.  These seemed to be helped by the hyper-scaler’s continued capex expansion.

SEMICONDUCTORS

The SMH was down 4.11% on the week.  Memory stocks WDC and STX were up on STX earnings while SKHY, MU, SNDK and were down 8.55%, 10.75%, 14.41% respectively. This takes into account the large group of earnings and stock specific news(ASML).  While SMH was down 4% on the week, it did rebound strong from the Wednesday low.  Unfortunately, bulls were a little disappointed in the gap up and sell off on Friday.  This week will rely heavily on the buyers confidence and speculation into this space.  Early weakness could lead to a retest of the Wednesday low, but a mild retest of the 100 SMA could make the move healthier with bulls stepping into support the sector.  Earnings could drive the direction as well.

SEMI EARNINS name this week: ON(8/3), AMD(8/4), LSCC(8/4),  WULF(8/5), WDC(8/5), SNDK(8/5), MCHP(8/6)

 

SOFTWARE (IGV)

The IGV was helped by MSFT’s earnings move, but the there was also great follow through moves from NOW, ADBE, CRM, INTU and ORCL.  PLTR has earnings on Monday so this is one to watch for an explosive move!

 

CASH FLOW MATTERS

Keeping this chart here as Free Cash Flow was discussed with almost all hyper-scalers this past week!

MIDTERM SEASONALITY 

Still leaving this in here for obvious reasons!

VIX 

The Vix pop and drop from the LEO LOW.  As we realized a low on Wednesday, investors became a little nervous and the VIX popped to 20.88.  As Citadel bought the bottom along with positive earnings, investor concerns faded along with a drop in the VIX back below 16!

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Before Market(B- Orange), Aftermarket (A-White Background)

One name we realized is not on this list is SPCX on Tuesday afternoon.  This could be a very heavy volume day on Thursday with 20% of the open interest holders allowed to trade for the first time since the IPO.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

All sourced from TradetheNews.com

Monday:
09:45EDT/14:45BST US Jul Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jul ISM Manufacturing; ISM Prices Paid; ISM New Orders; ISM Employment
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jun Construction Spending
11:30EDT/16:30BST US Treasury’s 3 and 6 Month Bill Auction

Tuesday:
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jun Trade Balance; Exports; Imports
08:55EDT/13:55BST US Redbook Retail Sales
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Aug RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jun Factory Orders; Factory Orders Ex-Transportation
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jun JOLTS Job Openings; JOLTS Job Openings Rate; JOLTS Quits Level; JOLTS Quits Rate; JOLTS Layoffs Level; JOLTS Layoffs Rate
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jun Final Durable Goods Orders; Durables Ex-Transportation
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jun Final Capital Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air; Capital Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air
11:00EDT/16:00BST US Treasury’s 4 and 8 Week Bill Announcement
11:30EDT/16:30BST US Treasury’s 52 Week Bill Auction
16:30EDT/21:30BST API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

Wednesday:
07:00EDT/12:00BST US MBA Mortgage Applications – Source TradeTheNews.com
08:15EDT/13:15BST US Jul ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (Treasury Press Conference Follows at 10:00EDT/15:00BST)
09:45EDT/14:45BST US Jul Final S&P Global Services PMI; S&P Global Composite PMI
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jul ISM Services Index; ISM Services Prices Paid; ISM Services New Orders; ISM Services Employment
10:30EDT/15:30BST DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
16:05EDT/21:05BST US Fed’s Cook (Voter)

Thursday:
05:30EDT/10:30BST US Jul Challenger Job Cuts
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Q2 Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity; Unit Labor Costs
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Jun Final Wholesale Inventories; Wholesale Trade Sales
10:30EDT/15:30BST DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00EDT/16:00BST US Treasury’s 3 and 6 Month Bill Announcement 1
1:30EDT/16:30BST US Treasury’s 4 and 8 Week Bill Auction
17:30EDT/22:30BST US St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem (Non-Voter)

Friday:
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jul Change in Non-Farm Payrolls; Non-Farm Payrolls 3-Month Average Change; Change in Private Payrolls; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jul Average Hourly Earnings; Average Weekly Hours All Employees
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jul Unemployment Rate
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jul Labor Force Participation Rate
08:30EDT/13:30BST US Jul Underemployment Rate
10:00EDT/15:00BST US Richmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin (Non-Voter)
11:00EDT/16:00BST US Jul New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations
15:00EDT/20:00BST US Jun Consumer Credit

MACRO MEASURE from WAYNE RAZZI

Click image below to watch video!

 

LEVELS – LARGE ETFS from @RYANMASTRO5

The week ahead:

As the conflict in IRAN heats up over the weekend, prime time media coverage remains reduced as the war drags on.  This means that earnings will dominate the headlines this week with over 1,300 stocks reporting.  Some of the notable names are PLTR (8/3), AMD & SPCX on Tuesday. A couple of other names that traders will be watching this week, LLY, CAT, UBER, & DIS.

SPCX will be on Tuesday for the first report since IPO.  This will be important as the stock has been heavily shorted and more shares are available to trade on Thursday. We could see a short term short squeeze if earnings come in strong only to be sold into on Thursday!

Economic data reports this week will provide some insights into oil and jobs.  OPEC reports mid week with IRAN conflict adding to higher oil prices.  The JOLTS, ADP, Challenger, Initial/Continuing Claims and the BLS report this week as well!

Good Luck this Week!