Newsletters
Rebel Roundup Newsletter For 8/3: Wall Street Books a Record Close on a Cease-Fire Tehran Says Doesn’t Exist. Clearly a WTF (Wild Trump Fiction) Moment
By Geoff Garbacz | Market Rebellion · August 3, 2026
NOTE – Geoff is in and out this week until Wednesday and then out until early next week but he will be editing and doing some writing with Akiko taking the lead so less charts until next week but they will return. Ultimately, we will have charts during such a period. Enjoy Akiko as she does a great job every day, now she is taking the helm for a bit.
TODAY, WRAPPED:
The day’s dominant market belief: peace and profits arrived on the same afternoon, and traders bought both. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 7,600.50, up 1.48%; the Dow closed at a record 53,178.40, up 693.38 points (1.32%); the NASDAQ Composite added 2.13%. Market participation confirmed it — advancers led decliners 69.1% to 27.2%, and new highs outnumbered new lows nearly 2-to-1.
Crude Oil (WTI) collapsed 6.29% to $80.67 on hopes that Monday’s Trump-Iran “talks” produce a real deal; Palantir (PLTR) posted a blowout quarter after the bell; Amazon (AMZN) held above $3 trillion. That’s the story — except Iran spent the same session denying the talks Trump was promoting. More on that below.
THE LEAD
Markets rallied for two very different reasons today. Earnings were real. Oil is a dream.
The earnings leg is Confirmed-level solid. Palantir (PLTR) crushed estimates after the bell and raised full-year guidance (see After The Close), silencing — for now — the pre-earnings “worst of both worlds” skepticism that had circulated as recently as this morning. Microsoft (MSFT) is up roughly 26% over three sessions, its best run since 2000, closing today +4.93%. Amazon (AMZN) added another 4.58% on top of Friday’s 15.3% surge, holding its freshly minted $3 trillion market cap; Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 4.88%, Meta Platforms (META) 6.06%. Crucially, this wasn’t a Mag 7-only move: Communication Services (+3.83%) and Industrials (+2.44%) led all sectors today, ahead of Technology (+1.57%), and Boeing (BA) — hardly an AI name — jumped 8.03% on FAA approval for its smallest 737 variant (see The Markets for the full sector picture).
The oil leg is Narrative-level at best. Trump said Sunday he called off a “massive” attack on Iran because Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Tehran itself asked for time to finalize a deal on the Strait of Hormuz and denuclearization. Oil dropped 6.29% on that premise today, which helped drive the 10-year yield down roughly 6 basis points to 4.686%. But Iran’s Foreign Ministry has denied the substance of Trump’s claim on multiple occasions since Sunday, and U.S. officials told CBS there are “no new negotiations planned.” Trump himself flipped between “talking about having the strait open by tomorrow” and threatening Iran with “decapitation” if it doesn’t sign — within the same afternoon session. The rally is real. But the premise underpinning roughly half of it remains unconfirmed by either side (more in The Real Story).
Institutional flow warned early on at least one piece of today’s puzzle: options desks were building bearish put spreads in SPY, IWM and QQQ across three separate sessions last week — before this melt-up started — and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) saw put buying build for two straight days ahead of Sunday’s AstraZeneca (AZN) merger report. More in UOA & TOA below.
The setup echoes the trade-headline rallies of 2018–19, when markets kept buying “deal is close” signals from Beijing only to give it back when China pushed back days later — except this cycle has compressed the whiplash from weeks to hours, and the counterparty this time is a live shooting war rather than a tariff negotiation.
Geoff’s Take: Locking in the win rather than pressing it was the message from the Chart Room today — Geoff closed the NVDA 8/7 $200 calls for a gain of 88.91% after putting the trade on last week. Chris Sykora, who called the SPY wedge setup last week, noted the index closed back inside the wedge Friday and broke out to the upside today — “barring any funny business, the bull is strong.”
Pete Najarian’s View: On NewsNation today, the Market Rebellion co-founder pushed back on the credibility-crisis framing directly: “Earnings don’t lie. Consumer spending is holding up (SBUX, KO, V), unemployment is at multi-decade lows, and the real inflation pressure is still oil + geopolitics. Sentiment surveys and yield spikes make noise. Actual behavior tells the real story.”
So what: today’s move deserves Medium confidence, not High — the earnings leg alone is strong enough to keep this from being pure Narrative, but it isn’t sufficient on its own to carry the index without oil’s help if Iran’s denials escalate further. Tomorrow’s setup — Caterpillar (CAT) before the open as a global bellwether, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and SpaceX (SPCX) after the close — will test exactly that.
THE MARKETS
Communication Services and Industrials outran Technology today, while Energy (-1.26%) was the lone sector loser on the oil crash and Healthcare/Consumer Defensive lagged — a rotation pattern that’s held over the past week too, with Consumer Cyclical +8.22% and Utilities -2.64% since last Monday.
THE BUZZ
-
ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 55.6 in July, a four-year high (vs. 54 expected), with the production sub-index posting its best July reading since 1951 and employment jumping to 52.8 from 49.7
-
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) pledged $750 billion through 2035 for U.S. housing supply and homeownership, nearly 40% above the prior decade’s pace
-
Visa (V) agreed to buy fraud-detection firm BioCatch for $2.4 billion amid a surge in AI-powered scams
-
UBS fined $125 million by U.S. regulators for anti-money-laundering violations
-
AMC posted the highest weekend revenue in its 106-year history on Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey. Here comes a $3 print and may $4 print before the summer is over.
-
Apple (AAPL) reported a record June quarter Friday on strong iPhone sales, yet closed down 1.84% today — a notable divergence from the rest of the Mag 7
-
SpaceX (SPCX) touched a 53.5% intraday drawdown from its high this morning before rallying to close +5.62%, with lockup expirations starting August 6 and first earnings due Tuesday after the close
-
Fed’s Williams reiterated he expects inflation to ease but “it would absolutely be appropriate” to hike if it doesn’t
UOA & TOA
1. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) — Bearish Put Spread
24,500 07August 720 puts bought for 3.46, above open interest of 3,168 contracts; 24,500 07August 700 puts sold for 1.08, above open interest of 7,156 contracts | Stock 735.49
24,500 07August 720 puts bought for 3.46, above open interest of 3,168 contracts; 24,500 07August 700 puts sold for 1.08, above open interest of 7,156 contracts | Stock 735.49
Why it matters: Rolled up in size from a 9,100-contract position in the 31July 740//720 strikes — built last Wednesday, four sessions before today’s record close. The single largest piece of downside protection on the log this week.
2. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) — Bearish Put Spread
50,000 30July 283 puts bought for 0.48-0.51, above open interest of 11,610 contracts; 50,000 30July 280 puts sold for 0.23-0.21, above open interest of 4,451 contracts | Stock 287.47-289.63
50,000 30July 283 puts bought for 0.48-0.51, above open interest of 11,610 contracts; 50,000 30July 280 puts sold for 0.23-0.21, above open interest of 4,451 contracts | Stock 287.47-289.63
Our read: At 50,000 contracts, this is the largest single flow across the entire week’s log. Small caps have been leading the melt-up (Russell 2000 +1.73% today), so a hedge this size against the very rally that’s carrying the index is the clearest small-cap skepticism in the data.
3. Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) — Bearish Put Spread
43,878 07August 660 puts bought for 7.88, above open interest of 28,496 contracts; 43,878 07August 645 puts sold, above open interest of 12,317 contracts | Stock 672.79
43,878 07August 660 puts bought for 7.88, above open interest of 28,496 contracts; 43,878 07August 645 puts sold, above open interest of 12,317 contracts | Stock 672.79
Risk: Rolled from a 21,939-contract spread in the 690//645 strikes — the position didn’t just persist, it doubled. Conviction building into the tech rally, not stale protection someone forgot to close.
4. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) — Bearish Put Buying (two sessions)
14,750 21August 61 puts bought for 0.68-0.72, above open interest of 269 contracts (7/30); adds 4,000 same strike for 0.55-0.56 the next session, below open interest of 20,690 contracts (7/31) | Stock 64.00-64.84
14,750 21August 61 puts bought for 0.68-0.72, above open interest of 269 contracts (7/30); adds 4,000 same strike for 0.55-0.56 the next session, below open interest of 20,690 contracts (7/31) | Stock 64.00-64.84
What we’re watching: Built across two consecutive sessions ending Friday — two days before Sunday’s report that AstraZeneca (AZN) had explored acquiring Bristol-Myers. Whether or not it anticipated the merger headlines specifically, it’s the cleanest example this week of positioning arriving ahead of a market-moving story.
5. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) — Bearish Put Spread
25,000 16October 165 puts bought for 5.76, above open interest of 279 contracts; 25,000 16October 150 puts sold for 1.81, above open interest of 951 contracts | Stock 173.72
25,000 16October 165 puts bought for 5.76, above open interest of 279 contracts; 25,000 16October 150 puts sold for 1.81, above open interest of 951 contracts | Stock 173.72
Why it matters: Today’s entry, and the direct hedge against the oil crash — the October dating means whoever put this on doesn’t expect today’s move to be the end of it.
6. Microsoft (MSFT) — Bullish Call Roll
7,950 16October 510 calls bought for 17.90, above open interest of 253 contracts; 7,950 21August 460 calls sold for 30.65, below open interest of 59,187 contracts | Stock 486.44
7,950 16October 510 calls bought for 17.90, above open interest of 253 contracts; 7,950 21August 460 calls sold for 30.65, below open interest of 59,187 contracts | Stock 486.44
What we’re watching: Rolling the strike up more than $50 after a 26% three-day run is a bet the move isn’t over — the seller is happy to close deep in the money, the buyer is paying up for more room.
Most active options: NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, AAPL, MU, MSFT, SPCX, GOOGL, INTC, MSTR, AMD, META, IREN, PLTR, GOOG
Rising volume to watch: MU, SPCX, INTC, MSTR, PLTR, SOFI, COIN, SNDK, ORCL, NFLX
Rising volume to watch: MU, SPCX, INTC, MSTR, PLTR, SOFI, COIN, SNDK, ORCL, NFLX
TOP TICKERS
PLTR, AMZN, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AZN, BMY, BA, CAT, TSLA
AFTER THE CLOSE
Palantir (PLTR): Q2 revenue $1.93B vs. $1.81B est. (+93% y/y); adjusted EPS $0.41 vs. $0.35 est.; adjusted EBITDA $1.20B, a 62% margin; U.S. commercial revenue $764M; FY guidance raised to $8.15–8.16B from $7.65–7.66B. Ninth straight beat.
ON Semiconductor (ON): revenue $1.6B vs. $1.59B est.; EPS $0.74 vs. $0.72 est.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) reports at 4:30pm ET; consensus is EPS $4.79 on revenue of $3.22 billion.
THE REAL STORY
Jargon note: the BofA Sell Side Indicator tracks the average recommended equity allocation across Wall Street strategists — historically, readings this high have preceded below-average forward returns.
Beyond today’s earnings-versus-oil split, another structural tension didn’t go away just because the Dow hit a new high: credit markets are pricing risk that equity markets are ignoring.
The BofA Sell Side Indicator sits at 56.2% — the highest since February and one point from triggering an outright sell signal, a contrarian gauge that’s flashed correctly at prior extremes. U.S. investment-grade tech bonds lost 2.2% last month, with yields at their highest since late 2023; Nvidia’s (NVDA) CDS — the cost of insuring its debt — sits at an all-time high. Real yields on 30-year Treasurys are at their highest since 2008, and Citadel Securities is now forecasting more than $500 billion in additional debt issuance by 2028 just to fund AI chip buildouts. None of that reversed today. It simply didn’t matter, because oil crashed and Palantir beat.
The same bifurcation shows up in Fed communication. NY Fed President Williams said today he “strongly” supported last week’s hold and expects inflation to ease into 2028 — but the three dissenting regional presidents (Logan, Hammack, Kashkari) each laid out, in more detail than the FOMC statement itself, why they wanted to hike. Citadel Securities and Goldman Sachs have both separately warned that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s reduced-guidance approach is undermining the central bank’s credibility, and buy-side firms including Brandywine and Wellington have said the same. Warsh himself said in 2025 that “frequent changes to the Fed’s metrics… are beneath the high standing of the central bank” — a standard JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli now suggests Warsh’s own task forces may be violating.
Neither of these stress points required today’s rally to be wrong. They required it to be financed by something that could reverse just as fast as it arrived — and the “deal” Trump has now referenced in some form on four separate days since Saturday has been met with an Iranian denial on most of those same days.
Playbook:
-
Watch: whether Iran issues another denial before Friday’s stated “decapitation” deadline
-
Confirm: Wednesday’s ISM Services print and Friday’s jobs report, both of which will shape whether the market’s roughly two-thirds odds of a September hike hold up or fade
-
Failure signal: a close back below 7,500 on the S&P 500 combined with WTI reclaiming $85 would suggest the oil leg of this rally has already unwound
QUESTIONS FROM THE ROWDY REBELS
Q: What was the UOA on NOK? — Joshua F.
A (Allen Feser): Lots of UOA in NOK two days ago — November $9, $10 and $11 calls. Nokia reported cloud/AI customer orders rising to €2.8 billion from €1 billion the prior quarter, which JPMorgan flagged as the key number in the release. The November timeframe gives the order surge time to show up in guidance.
A (Allen Feser): Lots of UOA in NOK two days ago — November $9, $10 and $11 calls. Nokia reported cloud/AI customer orders rising to €2.8 billion from €1 billion the prior quarter, which JPMorgan flagged as the key number in the release. The November timeframe gives the order surge time to show up in guidance.
Q: I have AMZN calls finally back to near breakeven with only three weeks left — roll them out for more time, or take the breakeven? — Jackie H.
A (Allen Feser): I’d put in a GTC limit sell order and wait for a pullback to re-enter.
A (Allen Feser): I’d put in a GTC limit sell order and wait for a pullback to re-enter.
Q: Thoughts on NVDA? — ROY L.
A (Geoff Garbacz): Sold the NVDA 8/7 $200 calls for a gain of 88.91% — lock it in. The stock has a run intraday by over $10. Geoff knew it was enough.
A (Geoff Garbacz): Sold the NVDA 8/7 $200 calls for a gain of 88.91% — lock it in. The stock has a run intraday by over $10. Geoff knew it was enough.
Q: Currently holding several government-stake names (NPSCY, MP, INTC, TMQ, LAC, LHX, USAR, IBM and others) — any recent UOA or interest in these? — Joshua F.
A (Chris Sykora): Nothing real convincing in them for UOA, at least not recently. On watch though — for my purposes, one-off volumes aren’t enough to get onboard; I like to see sustained demand for an issue.
A (Chris Sykora): Nothing real convincing in them for UOA, at least not recently. On watch though — for my purposes, one-off volumes aren’t enough to get onboard; I like to see sustained demand for an issue.
WATCHLIST
Earnings breadth vs. oil-and-Iran headline risk
Bull: If Tuesday’s AMD and SpaceX reports extend today’s pattern — real beats, raised guidance, broadening beyond the Mag 7 — the index can hold near highs on the earnings leg alone.
Bear: If oil snaps back toward $85, the rally loses the leg that pulled yields down and financed part of today’s move — and a market sitting one point from BofA’s sell signal doesn’t have much cushion left.
Fed credibility vs. incoming data
Bull: Williams’s reassurance today, plus a still-benign Fear & Greed reading of 46 (Neutral, not Greed), suggests the market hasn’t fully priced in a September hike — leaving room for relief if inflation data cooperates.
Bear: With three regional presidents on record wanting to hike and credit markets already pricing distress in tech debt, Friday’s jobs report becomes a binary catalyst for the one asset class that hasn’t joined today’s party.
Broad leadership carried the record close today; whether the deal underneath it holds is still Tehran’s call, not Wall Street’s.
YOUTUBE
