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Rebel Roundup Newsletter For 8/4: Stocks Blast Through 7,700 as the July Correction Is All But Forgotten, It Was Just A Dream Right?
By Geoff Garbacz | Market Rebellion · August 4, 2026
The NASDAQ Composite books its best 4-day run in over a year, closing up 2.59% today and 8.76% since Wednesday’s close as the S&P 500 broke 7,700 for the first time.
TODAY, WRAPPED:
The day’s dominant market belief: the correction has fully round-tripped, and this time the tape has receipts. The S&P 500 closed at 7,736.52, its first close above 7,700 and its highest level since June 2nd (+1.79% on the day). The Dow added 907 points (+1.71%) to a record close, and the NASDAQ Composite jumped +2.59% — its best four-session stretch in more than a year. The Russell 2000 didn’t sit this one out either, closing up +1.85%.
This wasn’t a top-heavy rally. Advancers beat decliners by roughly 2-to-1, new highs outnumbered new lows by more than 3-to-1, and the CNN Fear & Greed Index jumped from 45 (Neutral) to 59 (Greed) — a level not seen in over a month. Semiconductors, the epicenter of July’s selloff, led today’s advance rather than lagging it. Rather amazing.
THE LEAD
Opening. July was spent asking whether the AI trade could survive its own leverage. Today’s price action suggests the correction has fully round-tripped — not as a mega-cap-only bounce, but as a broad, breadth-confirmed move (see the numbers above) that pulled semiconductors, industrials, and small caps along with.
Why.
First, earnings did real work. Palantir (PLTR) closed up 29.35% — the top performer in the entire S&P 500 — after posting revenue of $1.94 billion against a Street estimate of $1.81 billion and raising its full-year outlook; the CEO called commercial demand “otherworldly.” Caterpillar (CAT) closed up 5.60% after a beat-and-raise quarter, its first-ever $20 billion revenue quarter, aided by AI data center-linked demand.
Second, chips staged the sharpest reversal of the month. Intel (INTC) closed up 10.92%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 8.60% ahead of tonight’s earnings, and Micron (MU) up 7.52%, pulling the sector’s underlying index up roughly 6.5% on the day after its worst month since 2008.
Third, oil cratered. WTI fell 5.99% to $75.74 after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “could come as soon as Tuesday.” As we noted yesterday, that leg still comes with a caveat: Iranian officials continue to publicly dispute the terms Bessent described, insisting on a corridor structure that keeps Tehran in control of inbound traffic. The oil move is real; despite today’s price action, the deal it’s pricing in remains unconfirmed.
Smart money early signal. Institutional options flow leaned into the move rather than chasing it after the fact — SPY call buyers added exposure through the morning and rolled strikes higher into the close, while a large energy put spread placed a day earlier signaled some desks were already positioned for today’s oil slide. More in UOA & TOA below.
History. Goldman’s Peter Callahan flagged that the Nasdaq 100’s roughly 945-basis-point move over four sessions stacks up against how tech has traded out of major market stress events over the past two decades. He attributes it to cleaner positioning, reduced leveraged-ETF footprints, and valuations that had reset to a discount. Unlike those prior shocks, though, this reversal was largely self-inflicted — a leverage unwind concentrated in a single sector, not an external event.
Geoff’s Take. On the currency backdrop underpinning this week’s calmer rate environment, Geoff has argued that coordinated U.S.-Japan yen support “isn’t a favor — it’s smart strategy,” given Japan’s role as a major buyer of U.S. goods and energy.
So what. Participation this broad has historically been hard to fade near-term — but VIX rising 3.4% on a record-close day isn’t typical of conviction buying, and points to some mechanical, dealer-driven character in today’s move. Whether the rotation thesis survives AMD’s earnings tonight and the jobs report is the next test. ADP is up tomorrow morning.
THE MARKETS
Sector rotation, one day: Technology (+4.28%) and Industrials (+2.77%) led; Energy (-0.77%) and Utilities (-0.37%) lagged. Over the past week, the picture flips defensives on their head — Consumer Defensive (-2.06%), Utilities (-2.43%), and Healthcare (-2.96%) are all red while Technology (+8.48%) and Consumer Cyclical (+7.08%) dominate.
THE BUZZ
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McDonald’s (MCD) beat on EPS ($3.38 adj. vs. $3.32 est.) but missed slightly on revenue, with U.S. comps slowing for a second straight quarter; the company named a new U.S. president.
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Merck (MRK) posted a smaller-than-expected loss and raised full-year revenue guidance.
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Pfizer (PFE) beat on both lines and raised the low end of full-year guidance.
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Snap (SNAP) beat on revenue, DAU, and ARPU; shares rose on turnaround hopes.
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On Semiconductor (ON) beat on EPS and margins.
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SK Hynix (SKHY) closed up 8.24% after seven brokerages initiated coverage this week — virtually all bullish.
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JOLTS (June): 7.359 million job openings, down from a downwardly revised 7.537 million.
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Trade deficit (June): $73.3 billion, roughly in line with estimates.
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Factory orders (June): -0.3%, versus consensus of +0.2%.
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Amazon (AMZN) closed down 2.32%, the only Mag 7 name in the red today, as Chair Jeff Bezos’ $4 billion share sale filing weighed on the stock.
UOA & TOA
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) — Bullish Call Buying/Roll
120,000 August 14th 775 calls bought mostly in one print above open interest of 2,721 contracts around midday; by mid-afternoon, the position rolled higher still, with 55,000+ August 21st 775 calls sold to buy 71,854 August 21st 785 calls.
120,000 August 14th 775 calls bought mostly in one print above open interest of 2,721 contracts around midday; by mid-afternoon, the position rolled higher still, with 55,000+ August 21st 775 calls sold to buy 71,854 August 21st 785 calls.
Why it matters: This wasn’t a single opportunistic bet — it’s a desk adding exposure through the session and re-upping at higher strikes into the close, the options-market signature of a rally institutions are choosing to lean into rather than fade.
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) — Bullish Call Roll
19,075 August 7th 690 calls sold to buy 19,075 September 4th 735 calls, above open interest of 319 contracts.
19,075 August 7th 690 calls sold to buy 19,075 September 4th 735 calls, above open interest of 319 contracts.
Our read: Rolling both the strike and the expiration higher is a statement that the desk expects this tech leadership to have room to run past this week’s earnings slate.
Palantir (PLTR) — Bullish Call Spread
12,000 March 19th, 2027 165/200 call spreads bought post-earnings, above open interest on both legs.
12,000 March 19th, 2027 165/200 call spreads bought post-earnings, above open interest on both legs.
What we’re watching: The long-dated structure suggests smart money isn’t just playing today’s pop — it’s positioning for PLTR’s re-rating to hold into next year.
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) — Bearish Put Spread (placed 8/3, ahead of today’s move)
25,000 October 165/150 put spreads bought the day before oil’s roughly 6% drop, above open interest on both legs.
25,000 October 165/150 put spreads bought the day before oil’s roughly 6% drop, above open interest on both legs.
Risk: This trade was on the tape a full session before today’s crude selloff — a reminder that positioned money was already fading the energy trade before the Hormuz headlines hit.
Most active options: NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, MU, META, GOOGL, INTC, SPCX, ORCL, PLTR, AMD
Rising volume to watch: MU, INTC, SPCX, ORCL, SOFI, PLTR, AMD, CRWV, IREN, GME
TOP TICKERS
(ranked by today’s move)
Palantir (PLTR, +29.35%), Caterpillar (CAT, +5.60%), Intel (INTC, +10.92%), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, +8.60%), Micron (MU, +7.52%), Broadcom (AVGO, +6.58%), SpaceX (SPCX, +10%+), SK Hynix (SKHY, +8.24%), Snap (SNAP)
AFTER THE CLOSE
SpaceX (SPCX) — First earnings as a public company topped Street estimates; options had implied a swing of up to $225 billion in market value heading into the print, and the stock had already closed up over 10% ahead of it.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — Reports after this close; today’s 8.6% intraday gain reflects broad semiconductor buying ahead of the print, not the result itself.
Winners From After The Close: APPS +21.7%, QLYS +13.6%, INTA +12.5%, ANET +10.4%, ECG +10.2%, NGL +10.2%, WTTR +10.1%, SWIM +8.6%, LRN +8.1%, OSPN +8%, IPI +7.5%, FTK +7.4%, BXC +7%, GSM +6.7%, IGL +6.6%, RARE +6.2%, BKNG +5.9%, TALO +5.8% of note.
Losers From After The Close: USNA -21.8%, TDC -17.7%, ANGI -16.7%, MBC -14.9%, ALIT -12.3%, LMB -12%, MTCH -9.1%, AMD -8.5%, PINS -8.5%, BL -8.4%, BV -8.3%, MNTN -8.2%, CC -8.1%, AROC -7.8%, LCID -7.7%, VSAT -7.7% SPCX -7.6%, AMD -8.5%, PINS -8.5% of note.
News after the close:
- Amgen (AMGN) put up a strong quarter beating on earnings and revenues.
- IonQ (IONQ) signs Sandia National Laboratories MOU on quantum co-design for national security applications.
- SpaceX (SPCX) prelim Q2 ($0.09) vs ($0.23) FactSet Consensus; revs $7.81 bln vs $6.83 bln FactSet Consensus.
- Booking Holdings (BKNG) beats on revenues and earnings but sees Q3 revs +4-6%, or $9.37-9.55 bln vs $9.71 bln FactSet Consensus.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat earning by $0.04 and revenues beat by $200 million, a beat but not a crazy beat.
- Riot Platforms (RIOT) cancels Q2 Earnings Call for 8/5, will reschedule.
- 10Q Delays – None of note.
Executive, Corporate Changes:
- VAC appoints Vladimir Anokhin as Chief Strategy & Transformation Officer.
- STAA names Warren Foust president and CEO; Deborah Andrews to remain CFO and become EVP.
THE REAL STORY
Jargon note: CDS (credit default swap) pricing reflects the market’s estimate of a company’s default risk — when it rises, bond investors are pricing in more danger even if the stock is unaffected.
Equities closed at records today on the strength of AI-linked earnings. Credit markets, pricing the same AI buildout, are telling a different story. The cost of insuring Nvidia’s (NVDA) debt against default hit an all-time high in the past week, and Oracle’s (ORCL) default risk has now surpassed its Global Financial Crisis peak. AI-related corporate debt has reached roughly $570 billion; Citadel forecasts more than $500 billion in additional issuance by 2028 to fund the chips going into AI campuses. One CIO described the trade as entering a “kindness of strangers” phase — hyperscalers leaning harder on debt as free cash flow weakens, with investors assuming that cash flow recovers on faith.
This is a genuine tension, not a restatement of today’s rotation story: equities are pricing accelerating AI monetization, while credit is pricing rising risk in the infrastructure being built to support it. Both can’t be fully right indefinitely. Hedge funds most exposed to this trade already felt it — Coatue’s flagship fund fell 8.3% in July, its worst month in over a year, and Millennium lost 2.1% on the same AI-stock selloff that just reversed today.
Playbook:
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Watch: AMD’s earnings tonight and Friday’s jobs report — both test whether today’s move was validation or a one-day squeeze.
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Confirm: NVDA and ORCL credit spreads narrowing back toward normal would ease the credit-vs-equity tension; continued widening alongside new equity highs would be the clearest warning sign in this market.
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Failure: A confirmed Iranian rejection of the Hormuz framework Bessent described would remove one leg of today’s rally without removing the others — still worth tracking separately from the AI-earnings leg.
QUESTIONS FROM THE ROWDY REBELS
Q: Is it a good time to establish any swing trades on the indexes — SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA? — Dennis M.
A (Geoff Garbacz): Two days straight up, we need a breather. I’ve been locking in gains since Monday on NVDA, IWM, and GOOGL.
A (Geoff Garbacz): Two days straight up, we need a breather. I’ve been locking in gains since Monday on NVDA, IWM, and GOOGL.
Q: Is this run driven by short covering, a squeeze of some sort, or is it just a great earnings quarter paying off? I was worried about all my 08/07 calls last week, but wow. — Mike M.
A (Geoff Garbacz): It’s buyers coming in and some short covering.
A (Geoff Garbacz): It’s buyers coming in and some short covering.
Q: Could you restate your comment from yesterday’s UOA Elite Chat on the MDT 18 December 85 calls? Open interest is still above 6,000 this morning — any significance for our current MDT 18 December 80 calls? — Allen F.
A (Chris Sykora): The MDT calls were traded out of by the original buyer — half simply closed out, but the other half apparently crossed to another desk since the open interest remained, so it’s the same bullish tilt. ABT similarly saw one of the UOA call buyers roll their position from the 95 line to the 105 line, so as far as the paper goes, things still look right.
A (Chris Sykora): The MDT calls were traded out of by the original buyer — half simply closed out, but the other half apparently crossed to another desk since the open interest remained, so it’s the same bullish tilt. ABT similarly saw one of the UOA call buyers roll their position from the 95 line to the 105 line, so as far as the paper goes, things still look right.
WATCHLIST
Rotation:
Bull: Participation this broad — advancers beating decliners 2-to-1, semiconductors reclaiming leadership after their worst month since 2008 — has historically been hard to fade in the near term.
Bear: VIX rising alongside the S&P to a record close is not typical of conviction buying; it’s more consistent with dealers being forced to chase a squeeze, which can unwind as fast as it built.
Bull: Participation this broad — advancers beating decliners 2-to-1, semiconductors reclaiming leadership after their worst month since 2008 — has historically been hard to fade in the near term.
Bear: VIX rising alongside the S&P to a record close is not typical of conviction buying; it’s more consistent with dealers being forced to chase a squeeze, which can unwind as fast as it built.
AI Credit Stress:
Bull: Record earnings and raised guidance from Palantir (PLTR), Caterpillar (CAT), and others suggest cash flow is starting to catch up to the debt being issued to fund it.
Bear: CDS spreads on Nvidia (NVDA) and Oracle (ORCL) hitting record and GFC-era highs, respectively, in the same week equities hit records is the kind of divergence that usually resolves in credit’s favor, not equity’s.
Bull: Record earnings and raised guidance from Palantir (PLTR), Caterpillar (CAT), and others suggest cash flow is starting to catch up to the debt being issued to fund it.
Bear: CDS spreads on Nvidia (NVDA) and Oracle (ORCL) hitting record and GFC-era highs, respectively, in the same week equities hit records is the kind of divergence that usually resolves in credit’s favor, not equity’s.
The rally now faces its first real test — AMD tonight, jobs data next week, and a credit market that hasn’t signed off yet.
YOUTUBE
