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Rebel Roundup Newsletter Weekend Edition for 7/24-7/26: FOMC Presser, Earnings Continue and Several Economic Releases of Note.

By Geoff Garbacz | Market Rebellion · July 26, 2026

Each weekend we spend a good amount of time preparing for the upcoming week.

This makes commentary better during the week because our team has a better idea of what is happening in the market to analze for you the reader.

So tonight as we complete our exercise from the weekend it makes sense to share what we are expecting going into the week. First, we review what happened after the close that could impact Monday morning. Look for another LEAP idea tomorrow from us as well.

AFTER THE CLOSE

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Winners From The Week: THC (234.67 +20.4%), ARWR (85.60 +15.21%), NVCR (18 +13.03%), MEDP (605.07 +12.52%),  CLF (11.94 +28.66%), SXT (126.14 +15.67%), EGO (32.00 +14.49%), NG (5.92 +14.29%), LMT (583.81 +14.75%), SBLK (28.26 +13.47%), CMCO (16.18 +12.66%), THRM (42.69 +18.78%), RNG (48.46 +17.28%), OII (52.90 +25.12%), VET (11.26 +14.5%).

Losers From The Week:  CDXS -21.1%, KPTI (7.57 -20.4%), RUN (9.93 -16.24%), TSLA (310.99 -18.34%), RPD (9.48 -22.34%), SEDG (42.48 -20.56%), TENB (32.25 -19.13%), STM (51.34 -17.27%), PEGA (26.69 -17.01%), ADTN (9.84 -15.54%), BMI (126.43 -15.42%), LBRT (17.44 -26.85%)

News After The Close:

  • Paramount Skydance (PSKY) extends note exchange and tender offers to Aug. 7.
  • HF Sinclair (DINO) files suit against EPA over delays in biofuel-blending decision.
  • Microchip (MCHP)  to acquire edge AI chipmaker Hailo.
  • Amazon (AMZN) |ticking lower on report TikTok is testing a rival to Amazon Prime. (Business Insider)
  • US to resume cattle imports from Mexico. (WSJ)
  • GD awarded a US Air Force contract, with a not-to-exceed value of $400,400,000.
  • RTX awarded a $333.6 mln Defense Logistics Agency contract 
  • 10Q Delays – None of note. 

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • CARR announces election of Neil Barua, President and CEO of PTC Inc, to its Board of Directors.
  • MCHP COO Richard J. Simoncic, resigns, effective August 17, 2026 to become head of a private company, Menlo Microsystems.
  • CACC CTO Ravi Mohan to step down. 

Buybacks of Note:

  •  

Dividend Info:

  • RY BNY WIT BCO USAC WMK LPG goes Ex-Div Monday.
  • goes Ex-Div Tuesday.
  • RBA increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.33/share from $0.31/share.

COMMENT -Tracking corporate action and filings after the close is tedious work but pays off. Especially filing see below. Normally Rebel Reoundup Pro susbcribers see this is the morning.

FILINGS – Undoubtedly, there will be more in the morning but this gives us a heads up.

  • IPO Filings & News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    •  
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    •  
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • MH files for 165,160,216 share common stock offering by selling stockholder.
    • BBIO files for 24,628,286 share common stock offering by selling shareholders .
    • REPL files for 25,103,489 share common stock offering by selling shareholders;
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AMBO files for $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering.
    • CEPL files for $500 mln mixed securities shelf offering.
    • BAH files mixed securities shelf offering.

THE WEEK AHEAD – The goal of this is to uderstand what is going to move markets each day as well as what names are going to move. This appears in Rebel Squeeze Play Pro each week.

The Week Ahead Starting July 27, 2026

The major stock indexes were lower across the board. The S&P 500 is now in a range of 7500 to 7400 a drop from last week. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7411.98 from 74571.69 on 7/17. Most equity indexes we track are below their Daily DMA Channels and in their Weeklies while still above the Monthlies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 14-day Choppiness index is at 54 from 62 last week and the Russell 2000 is at 65 from 57. This week the S&P 500 is now at 60 from 57 while the NASDAQ 100 is at 54 from 53. Last, the S&P 400 is at 64 from 55.

The Choppiness index ranges from 0 to 100, and the lower it gets the more a trend is evolving. The higher the choppiness index moves, the more a new trend may be starting. Usually, above 65 is where a new trend begins and below 40 is where trends typically end. The Russell 2000 and S&P 400 are now getting ready to start a new trend.

Below is our summary of the Current Moving Average Levels on our index tracking. There is weak action on both the equity and the bond side.

Moving Averages (updated through 7/24 Close)

 
We also track DMA Levels at major inflection points like now. We are see strength on a monthly level.
 
DMA Channels (updated through 7/24 Close)
 
 

 

We note our Erlanger Big Barf Indicator (EBB) on a daily basis is at -4.75 from 2.00 last week with Weekly and Monthly Levels see the Weekly at 2.71 from 10.58 and the Monthly is at 26.05 from 27.16. QPI Overbought/Oversold Indicator is no longer active on overbought or oversold just weeks after markets hit the oversold. Current reading is 35 from 38 last week.
 
Type 1s and Type 4s saw Type 1s fall by -2.97%  last week and Type 4s fall by -0.66% while the overall Hedge was down -2.31%. 

The top four areas facing the market in this trading week are:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

  1. Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Watch our X (Twitter) feed Bullet86 for a last minute heads up on Federal Reserve speakers as well as Treasury auctions each day. Fed Speakers are now back in the blackout period until July 30th which is the day after the next FOMC meeting ends on the 29th. 
  1. Economic Releases. Monthly Releases of note this week include Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, Case-Schiller Home Price Index, FOMC Decision, Personal Income, PCE Core, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence. 
  1. Earnings Releases. Nothing notable in releases this upcoming week: Earnings season has basically concluded for the first quarter earnings. Second Quarter Earnings will continue this week led by CDNS BKR V KO MSFT META AAPL AMZN XOM CVX.
  2. Latest Short Interest Release – The NYSE and NASDAQ released their latest short interest data last week for the collection period of June 30th to July 15th. NYSE Short Interest fell by -1.57% and NASDAQ rose by 0.97%. The S&P 500 rose by 2.77% during the last reporting period. The next release date will be August 11th after the close and range from July 15th to July 31st. In that period, the S&P 500 has fallen by -2.12%.                                                                                    

Daily Alerts

Monday, July 27th
  • June Durable Goods are out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 0.90% from 1.30%.
Tuesday, July 28th
  • May Case Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 1.3% from 1.1%.
  • July Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 92.10 from 91.20.
Wednesday, July 29th
  • The latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will conclude at 2:00 p.m. EDT with an announcement and then a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
Thursday, July30th
  • June Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.70%.
  • June PCE Core is also due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to -0.10% from 0.40%.
Friday, July 31st
  • July Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and expected to drop to 56.5 from 56.70.
  • July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to stay at 54.40.
The Week Ahead Earnings That Are 1s (Short Squeezes) or 4s (Long Squeezes): 
 
 

TAKEAWAY – Fed and Earnings will drive the market along with some economic releases. 

WEEKLY REPORT – The weekly report is divided into Macro and Micro. Each Week we highlight one of them. This is published in Rebel Squeeze Play Pro.

QUICK COMMENT: The S&P 500 closed at 7411.98 on Friday from 7457.69 at our last update on 7/17. 
                                  7400 is now support from 7500 and 7500 is now resistance from 7600. 
 
The theme remains of “… would look to buy selective stocks with excess puts that are at a base not extended”. There are still tons of stocks that are basing as 50.99% of stocks are now up for the year through July 24th.
 
Chart of Interest: VIX Positive Seasonality has started which means stocks are vulnerable in the S&P 500.
 
 
Week Ended 7/17: We reviewed the holdings of stocks in the ETF, AIQ. Clearly, many of the stocks are in trouble and we need to see improvement for a new run in AI stocks.
 
Week Ended 7/10: We showed a combined chart of RSI and Choppiness which is high indicating a new move is on its way..
 
Week Ended 6/26: The combined chart of short interest. It is getting very extreme. Shorts are not shy about establishing positions.
 
Stats of Note: The S&P 500 has made 37 new highs in 2025. There have been 25 new highs for 2026 with the last one in June, on the 2nd, with none in July. 
 
MACRO CHART of S&P 500 VERSUS RUSSELL 2000: The Russell 2000 is still lagging the S&P 500 (30 Day Moving Average (red line)) There is also in the Chart a 20 day moving average)
 
 
 
IND RSI Overbought/Oversold – No Sectors are overbought or oversold.
 
 
Groups: 0 Groups Are Overbought &  1 Group is Oversold:
 
 
MARKET BREADTH: The chart below is of the Market Breadth with Daily & Weekly A/D Lines as well as Daily & Weekly Volume A/D Lines. Breadth is now a problem as it rolled over this week.
 
 
 
MARKET EVS:  Market Erlanger Volume Swing (EVSM) moves from 5 this past week to 1.
 
 
 
BIAS/Setup And Trigger Tables – Green is positive. Yellow is neutral. Red is negative.
 
Bias
 
 
Triggers
 
 
 
I. Sector changes this week. This was a “moderate rotation” week as one sector moved to buy and one moved to sell. In ECR, look for Sector Data Erlanger. 
               
(+)   New moves to Buy: Utilities, Transportation and Household & Personal Products of note.  
 
Most Interesting Jump of the Week: Transportation of note.
                   
(- )   New moves into Avoid: Consumer Services, Media and Food & Staples Retailing
 Most Interesting Drop of the Week:  Consumer Services
 
 
SCANS -Then we review lots of scans to look for new ideas. Jack runs a report called Sunday Swell in Rebel Squeez Play Pro and here are ideas that we have pulled from here.
 
 
We will review this on our Tuesday Webinar Call. Until then enjoy what is left of the weekend.