Rebel’s Edge Notes

Ongoing focus on this week’s heavy Big Tech earnings slate (Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, IBM), where investors demand evidence that AI capex is yielding revenue and margins amid lingering ROI skepticism. Geopolitical oil dynamics: Brent eased from recent highs near $90+ on diplomatic signals between the U.S. and Iran, but tensions persist and keep a risk premium in energy/inflation expectations. 

VIX: 17.83 down 5%

Prediction Markets 

QQQ is 28,897 – Kalshi traders say 62% chance it trades over 31,800

LITE up 8%: Lumentum, a key provider of lasers, optical transceivers, and components for high-speed data center connectivity, benefits from surging demand for bandwidth in AI infrastructure builds. Hyperscalers are rapidly scaling clusters that require massive optical interconnects to move data efficiently between GPUs and switches, and Lumentum’s products (including co-packaged optics and high-speed modules) are critical enablers. Recent positive sentiment around AI capex visibility, supply-chain checks showing strong order momentum, and analyst support (e.g., JPMorgan highlighting reasonable valuations after prior pullbacks and Nvidia-driven CPO adoption) have fueled buying. The stock has been a standout performer in the broader AI trade this year, with optics emerging as a key “picks and shovels” area beyond just chips.

SNEX: StoneX Group is down significantly today, extending recent weakness in the financial services/capital markets sector. The company, a diversified provider of execution, clearing, and advisory services across commodities, FX, equities, and payments, often sees volatility tied to trading volumes, commodity prices, and broader market sentiment. Today’s move appears driven by sector-wide rotation or profit-taking after a strong run, with investors de-risking financial names amid geopolitical oil concerns, AI spending scrutiny, and caution ahead of key earnings. StoneX has benefited from elevated volatility (e.g., in energy/agriculture from Middle East tensions) that boosts client activity and spreads, but any perceived slowdown in volumes or heightened counterparty/credit risks can weigh on sentiment. 

COHR: Coherent is up solidly today as part of the ongoing rebound/rotation in the AI photonics and optical networking group. Coherent, a leader in lasers, transceivers, indium phosphide components, and photonics for data centers, continues to benefit from strong hyperscaler demand for high-speed interconnects needed in AI clusters. The stock moves in tandem with peers like Lumentum (LITE), reflecting positive sentiment around bandwidth bottlenecks, co-packaged optics adoption, and capacity ramps (including CHIPS Act-supported expansion in Texas). Recent tailwinds include record bookings, NVIDIA partnerships, and margin expansion from higher factory utilization in AI-related products. 

HUT: Hut 8 stock rises after tenant doubles footprint at Beacon Point data center site in Texas. Stock was surging after the bitcoin miner and energy infrastructure platform announced commercialization of the second phase of its one-gigawatt Beacon Point data center campus in Texas. The company has secured a second 15-year, $9.8B lease for 352 megawatts of IT capacity, fully commercializing the Beacon  Point campus. The high-investment-grade company that executed the Phase 1 lease has doubled its contracted IT capacity at the campus to 704 megawatts. The triple net lease was executed on substantially the same terms as the Phase 1 lease. Hut 8 is now set to deliver a second 352 megawatt AI factory designed to NVIDIA’s DSX reference architecture for gigawatt-scale AI infrastructure supported by 500 MW of utility capacity.