Rebel’s Edge Notes

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate was reported at 6.69% for the week ending July 17, an increase from the previous week’s rate of 6.65%. Global crude prices surged over 4% on Wednesday, with Brent crude reaching $95 per barrel, driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that Washington remains open to negotiations regarding the Iran crisis but noted Tehran’s lack of seriousness in talks. 

Prediction How:

 Many NJ voters were fraudulently approved by a DMV “Mistake”.

https://x.com/jonnajarian/status/2079911161428922699?s=20

GEV: Second-quarter earnings for Ge Vernova Inc showed revenue of $11.1 billion, exceeding expectations of $10.73 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 22%. However, adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.47, falling short of the analyst consensus of $3.04. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $45.5 billion and $46.5 billion, citing a backlog increase to $176 billion. Despite these positive indicators, shares are declining in pre-market trading due to challenges in the wind segment, where revenue decreased by 10% and EBITDA losses widened to $275 million from lower onshore volume and higher offshore project costs. Additionally, Ge Vernova faces significant cost impacts from global tariffs estimated between $100 million and $200 million for 2026.

SMCI: SuperMicro released a preliminary business update after market close on July 21, showing: Record order backlog exceeding $60 billion (up significantly from the previous ~$39 billion mentioned in June). Gross margins for Q4 (ended June 30, 2026) now estimated at 15-17% (GAAP and non-GAAP) — nearly double the prior guidance of 8.2-8.4%. Revenue expected at the low end of previous guidance ($11B–$12.5B range), but the margin beat and massive backlog overshadowed that. This directly addresses investor concerns about profitability and dilution from the recent $7B capital raise, while highlighting continued explosive AI server demand.  Margins were a big overhang — the sharp improvement (better product mix, higher-value systems) signals stronger pricing power and operational efficiency. Backlog validates huge AI infrastructure demand (tied to NVIDIA and others), with new orders pushing visibility into 2027.

RDDT: Reddit Inc’s stock is declining in pre-market trading amid reports of the company reconsidering its relationship with Google. Shares fell significantly in the prior session, driven by concerns that Reddit may block Google from using its content for AI training. This decision is seen as a response to Google’s AI-generated search results potentially cannibalizing traffic essential for Reddit’s advertising revenue. The ongoing negotiations over a data-licensing agreement, valued at approximately $60 million annually, underscore growing tensions between digital publishers and search engines regarding content access. Earlier in the session, shares reached a notable low before recovering slightly, but the overall trend remains lower since Tuesday’s close.

ARWR: Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals reported significant topline results from its Phase 3 SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 studies of plozasiran, aimed at treating severe hypertriglyceridemia. The studies demonstrated median triglyceride reductions of 79% and 81%, respectively, compared to approximately 27% in the placebo group. Additionally, there was a statistically significant reduction in acute pancreatitis events, including a complete elimination of such events in high-risk patients. The safety profile remained consistent with prior findings, showing no new safety signals. Following this announcement, Arrowhead’s stock has seen notable gains in pre-market hours, reflecting strong upward momentum. Discussions on social media indicate that the stock experienced a significant increase following the news. The company plans to file a supplemental new drug application with the U.S. FDA before the end of 2026, with detailed results set to be presented at the European Society of Cardiology Congress on August 30, 2026.