Rebel’s Edge Notes

Oil volatility and geopolitics: Crude jumped ~5% on Monday (WTI to ~$82, Brent to ~$88) amid uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Progress on a potential US-Iran deal stalled after new demands and comments from President Trump, raising supply concerns and feeding inflation worries. Oil remained choppy. Q2 reporting season remains a major positive. S&P 500 companies are on track for ~50% year-over-year EPS growth (strongest in years), driven by AI-related spending and demand.

Prediction: CPI Tomorrow Morning 

RIOT (Riot Platforms) is moving sharply higher today (surging ~20%+ in premarket/after-hours action) primarily because the Bitcoin miner announced a major pivot into AI infrastructure: a 20-year, ~$9.1 billion data-center capacity lease (191 MW at its Rockdale, Texas campus) with Anthropic (the “leading frontier AI lab”), with extension options that could push the total toward $16.1 billion. This follows an earlier AMD deal and came alongside Q2 results that beat on revenue, underscoring the shift from volatile mining revenue toward steadier, long-term contracted AI hosting. The move reflects broader industry trends of crypto miners repurposing power and sites for AI compute demand. Analysts raised price targets in response, and retail sentiment turned extremely bullish. 

FRMI (Fermi) is surging today (~16–19%+ premarket, after strong after-hours gains) on its first binding customer lease at Project Matador (Carson County, Texas): a 15-year, ~$6.5 billion turnkey AI data-center agreement with TensorWave (222 MW initially, expandable beyond 650 MW, supporting AMD Instinct GPUs). This validates the pre-revenue power-campus strategy after earlier setbacks. The deal positions Fermi for first power delivery amid high demand for AI infrastructure, driving the sharp re-rating. 

SE (Sea Limited) is rising sharply today (~9–10%+ premarket) after reporting strong Q2 results: revenue of $7.79 billion (+48% YoY, well above estimates) driven by Shopee (GMV +28%, orders +28%), Monee, and Garena, even as adjusted EPS missed slightly. Management expressed confidence that Shopee can reach $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the full year. Investors focused on the robust top-line momentum and improving unit economics across e-commerce, fintech, and gaming. 

ONON (On Holding) is falling sharply today (down ~13%+ in premarket) after Q2 results showed revenue of CHF 850.3 million (up 21.6% constant currency but missing consensus of ~CHF 881 million), despite an EPS beat and strong DTC growth (+34% constant currency), apparel strength, and margin expansion (gross margin 65.4%). Full-year guidance called for low-20s% constant-currency sales growth. The revenue shortfall outweighed the profitability positives and DTC/brand momentum in the market’s reaction.