Rebel’s Edge Notes

Asian markets generally higher while U.S. and European indices are lower. Germany’s DAX has slipped about 0.2% to around 26,390, giving back early-session gains after touching 26,505. 

Prediction:

Robinhood now generates more revenue from prediction markets than it does from equities trading.

SNDK: Sandisk is rising today as the stock continues to extend a powerful multi-day rally fueled by its recent Investor Day guidance and broader strength across the memory sector. Management outlined a multi-year financial model calling for mid-to-high-teens annual revenue growth from fiscal 2028 through 2030, sustained non-GAAP gross margins near 80%, operating margins around 75%, and adjusted free-cash-flow margins of roughly 50%, while committing to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. The company highlighted approximately $93.9 billion in multi-year “New Business Model” customer contracts (covering a substantial portion of expected output in coming years) that lock in volumes and pricing, reducing traditional memory-industry cyclicality. These contracts, combined with surging AI-driven demand for NAND flash in data centers and inference workloads, have drawn strong analyst support. SNDK is building on last week’s roughly 35% advance.Technically, SNDK remains in a strong uptrend after reclaiming key levels, though momentum is elevated. The stock has broken above recent resistance and is trading well above its major moving averages

Anthropic’s aggressive 2028 revenue forecast lifts AI and tech stocks. Anthropic’s projection of roughly $190–200 billion in 2028 revenue (far above its recent ~$47 billion run rate) has bolstered confidence in sustained AI spending and infrastructure demand. The forecast, tied to its upcoming IPO and potential multi-trillion-dollar valuation discussions, helped push Nasdaq 100 futures higher (around +0.5%) and supported premarket gains in megacap tech names such as Amazon and Alphabet, along with chipmakers. Investors are pricing in continued heavy investment in AI models and compute even as questions linger about timelines and margins. 

Retail: Focus turns to major retail earnings for signals on consumer health. A busy week of results from Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, and others is in the spotlight after July retail sales fell 0.6% (the weakest in over a year) and consumer sentiment weakened. These reports will provide critical reads on spending resilience amid higher oil prices, residual inflation pressures, and softer economic data, potentially moving retail and consumer discretionary stocks. 

VST: Peter Thiel’s fund discloses stake in Vistra Corp. Shares of Argentine shale oil producer Vistra Corp rose about 5% in premarket trading after Thiel Macro LLC reported owning roughly 1.2 million ADSs (about $76 million, or ~1% of the company) as of the end of Q2. However, that rally didn’t last as the stock went negative just after the open. The position was the fund’s second-largest disclosed holding (behind Amazon) and highlights investor interest in Vaca Muerta production growth and Argentina’s energy sector.