Rebel’s Edge Notes

Recent news indicates that President Trump has ruled out extending a ceasefire agreement with Iran, leading to fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. This situation has contributed to a surge in oil prices. SPY/QQQ semiconductor and related names are experiencing similar pressure from the same combination of profit-taking after Monday’s AI/memory rally and macro factors (rising Treasury yields and higher oil prices from Middle East tensions). Building permits rose by 5% to an annualized rate of 1.443 million units in July, exceeding expectations and indicating some resilience in the housing sector despite broader economic concerns.

Prediction  

BIDU EPS MISS: Baidu was $162 in January and falls to $94 today, down some 10% following its second-quarter earnings report, which fell short of analyst expectations. The company reported earnings per share of RMB7.22, missing the consensus estimate of RMB9.84, and revenues of RMB31.33 billion, below the expected RMB31.95 billion. Although Baidu noted a substantial increase in GPU Cloud revenue and a 50% rise in AI Cloud Infrastructure revenue, its advertising segment struggled with a 19% revenue decline to RMB13.1 billion. This mixed performance has intensified selling pressure on Baidu shares, contributing to a sharp decline since Monday’s close.

AMLX Up 35%: Amylyx Pharmaceuticals explodes through the old high as the pharma has unveiled positive topline results from its Phase 3 LUCIDITY trial of avexitide in people with post-bariatric hypoglycemia (PBH), a rare but serious complication after weight-loss surgery. Avexitide, an investigational GLP-1 receptor antagonist, showed a remarkable 55% reduction in the rate of Level 2 and Level 3 hypoglycemic events compared to placebo, meeting the study’s primary endpoint with high statistical significance The LUCIDITY trial, which enrolled 78 adults who had undergone Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, also met all secondary endpoints. Avexitide delivered clinically meaningful reductions in hypoglycemic episodes measured in several ways: by traditional self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG), continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), and independent adjudication of severe events.

HD: HD shares rose 2.16% after the home-improvement retailer reported second-quarter revenue of $47.9B, up 5.8% from a year earlier. CFO Richard McPhail said the company saw broad-based demand as customers continued to engage in smaller projects.  Home Depot reported second quarter fiscal 2026 sales of $47.86 billion, a 5.7% increase from the same period last year. Comparable sales rose by 1.7% overall—driven by a 1.3% gain in U.S. stores—indicating steady customer activity despite cautious consumer sentiment. Net earnings reached $4.77 billion or $4.79 per diluted share, up 4.7% year-over-year, highlighting continued operational discipline and effective execution by the company’s teams. Gross profit climbed 6.5% to $16.12 billion, with gross margin holding up at 33.7%. Operating margin came in at 14.3%, slightly below last year’s 14.5%, while the adjusted operating margin was 14.7%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 5.1% to $4.92. Cash flows from operating activities surged to $11.42 billion for the first half of the year, underpinning Home Depot’s financial flexibility for dividends, new store investments, and acquisitions.

KLAR is an AI powered global payments network: They have announced advanced plans for senior leadership changes, with transitions for both its Chief Financial Officer and Chief Marketing Officer set for early 2027. Unlike abrupt resignations or forced departures that can unsettle both investors and the internal team, Klarna’s approach highlights structured continuity. Niclas Neglén, Klarna’s CFO for six years, and David Sandström, CMO for nine years, will continue to steer their departments through the handover period, ensuring no disruption to operations or strategic initiatives. Both leaders have been instrumental in shaping Klarna’s recent trajectory. Neglén’s financial stewardship included navigating Klarna to a public listing and through multiple phases of international growth. Sandström transformed Klarna from a Nordic payments niche into a globally recognized financial technology brand. Their ongoing involvement is intended to ensure the company remains in capable hands as successors are onboarded.