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Morning Note - 07/30/26: Stocks Rebound From Yesterday's Selloff From 3:00 t0 4:00 p.m. EDT

By Jack Bahrenburg | Market Rebellion · July 30, 2026

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -1.52% at 7316.15 from Tuesday higher by 0.21% at 7428.78.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7300 from 7400. Resistance is now at 7400 from 7500. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7300.
  • S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.696% from 4.631%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks are now in a two-week losing streak, with the S&P 500 dropping -0.61% in the last week, ended 7/24.
  • U.S. moved into Week 23 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Fighting had stopped but Iran restarted attacking U.S. assets.
  • 3 Day Winning Streak on the S&P 500 came to an crashing end on Wednesday. The losing streak is 1 day old.
  • The S&P 500 had its third loss for the month of July of more than -1%. We are now clustering with another loss of -1%. So hunker down with 2 trading days left in the month.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

  • Economic news of note.
    • Monthly - Personal Income and PCE Core out this morning.
    • Weekly – Jobless Claims and Natural Gas Inventories of note this morning.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today:
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Greets the White House Internship Program Summer Class at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Makes an Announcement on Freedom Haulers at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Signing Time at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News: IOND JMKE REF are coming public this week.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    •  TMS files for 16,000,000 share common stock offering, relates to warrants.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • TMS also files for 19,663,254 share common stock offering by selling security holders.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings
    • ENGS: Form F-3.. UP TO $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: CSL +0.68, BOOT +0.60, MSFT +0.50, EQIX +0.43, FICO +0.42, LHX +O.33, FORM +0.21, HOOD +0.19, SBUX +0.19, AEM +0.16 (>0.15) 
  • Misses: TREE -0.73, ALKT -0.23, PSA -0.08, PPC -0.06, GLF -0.04, QCOM -0.02, PTEN -0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.

Winners From After The Close: CORT +20.2%, PRCH +20.4%, CORT +20.2%, SMHI +17.2%, FORM +12.4%, FTNT +11%,  SBUX +6%, CMG +5.9%, LRCX +4.7%, GKOS +9.5%, MSFT +8.3%, EFOR +8.3%, NPKI +7.9%, CNMD +7.2%, SBUX +6%, GFL +5.9%, CMG +5.9%, CVI +5.1%, MAX +5.1%, SIMO +5.1%, SFM +4.8%, PBI +4.8%, LRCX +4.7%, CHDN +4.5%, ARXS +4.3%, PI +4.2%, FLS +4.1% of note.

Losers From After The Close: FTAI -18.4%, TDOC -16.2%, TREE -11.3%, FICO -9.3%, WWD -8.9%, META -8.7%, CWH -6.9%, MDXG -6.6%  of note.

News after the close:

  • Xencor (XNCR) to receive $105 million from Alexion to settle Ultomiris U.S. royalty dispute.
  • MIMEDX (MDXG) to acquire Sanara MedTech (SMTI) for $35/share in cash and stock.
  • META missed on earnings $6.18 versus $7.19 but beat on revenues $60,88 billion versus $60.22 billion.  
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) missed on earnings, $2.21 versus $2.23 but beat on revenues.
  • Procore (PCOR) entered a definitive agreement to buy private DroneDeploy for approximately $845 million in cash, subject to customary purchase price adjustments.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) beat firmly on revenues and earnings.
  • Chipotle (CMG) raised FY 26 Comp guidance even though earnings were so so.
  • Saudi Arabia wants to guide a coalition to protect the Red Sea.
  • TransAlta (TAC) declares a quarterly dividend of $0.05.
  • 10Q Delays - None of note. 

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • KMT names Joseph Alvarado incoming chairman; William Lambert to retire in October.
  • WRB names Christopher Moede president of Berkley Risk. 

Buybacks of Note:

  • CMG to buy back $1.3 billion.

Dividend Info:

  • UNP increases quarterly dividend 3% to $1.42 per share from $1.38 per share.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +37, NASDAQ 100+275, Dow Jones +162. Europe is higher while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.6965% from 4.635% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $64,484 from $64,414.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Technology, Consumer Cyclicals, Materials, Industrials, Financials, Real Estate, and Utilities were higher
  • Daily: Communication Services, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive and Energy were lower.
  • One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close:

  • Friday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: REGN +4.13, VLO +2.41, PBF +2.07, EME +1.83, SNY+1.79, HII +1.48, DAR +1.01 (>1.00)
  • Missed: GPI -0.99, CWT-0.31, GOOS -0.18, AMCX -0.16, MT -0.14 , AEP -0.12 of note. (<-0.10)
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – OSK SHW PYPL UPS CARR XPRO of note.
  • Mixed – SPGI of none.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth has rebounded.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: CORT +23.7%, PRCH +16.8%, FORM +14.1%, SMHI +13.3%, TAL +10.8%, AMRX +10.1%, SIMO +9.9%, FTNT +9.9%, GKOS +9.5%, SFM +9.3%, SMTI +9%, MSFT +9%, LRCX +8.3%, MRT +7.1%, TT +7%, SBUX +6.6%, CNMD +6.5%, NPKI +6.1%, EFOR +5.9%, IBRX +5.4%, BHE +5.4%, PBI +5.2%, FIVN +5.1%, CMG +5.1%, AXTI +4.9%, EPR +4.8%, ING +4.8%, ASX +4.7%, CHDN +4.2%, PTC +3.8%, BHC +3.6%, PI +3.6%, FLS +3%, RGR +3%, ENTG +2.8%, MOD +2.8%, MTH +2.8%, SOLS +2.8%, RKLB +2.7%, HII +2.4%, WLK +2.4%, LYG +2.2%, XEL +2.2%, ICLR +2.1%, EQIX +2%  of note
  • Gap Down: TDOC -19.5%, RTO -16.8%, ESS -13.5%, TENB -12.4%, FTAI -11.4%, TREE -11.4%, CWH -9.3%, PFSI -9.3%, FICO -9.1%, META -8.9%, COUR -8.9%, MDXG -8.5%, CVNA -7.6%, ALKT -6.3%, WWD -6.2%, QCOM -5.7%, HLI -5.5%, DC -4.8%, TE -4.6%, ARM -4.6%, ALGN -4.5%, STLA -4.2%, GPI -4.2%, HLN -3.2%, SNY -3%, LHX -2.9%, PPC -2.9%, TTEK -2.9%, AR -2.7%, ADPT -2.5%, OSCR -2.4%, ETD -2.4%, METC -2.3%, ORLY -2.2%, BUD -2.2%, CVI -2.1%, TNK -2%, MGRC -2% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. No stock see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • Warsh's Performance Falls Flat With Investors. (NYT)
  • Egypt Suffers First Drone Attack as Iran War Widens. (WSJ)
  • US Strikes Iran as Conflict Widens In The Middle East. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks Gain as Microsoft Results Ease AI Worries. (Bloomberg).
  • Bank of England holds Rates in 6-3 Vote as War Clouds Inflation Outlook. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:  The Federal Reserve (FOMC) blackout period runs through Thursday, July 30, 2026.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Greets the White House Internship Program Summer Class at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Makes an Announcement on Freedom Haulers at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Signing Time at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • Crude Oil Inventories out at 10:30 p.m. EDT.
      • MBA Mortgage Applications out at 7:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly
      • June Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.70%.
      • June PCE Core is also due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to -0.10% from 0.40%.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 23% from 53% of Equities are Positive, and 12% from 36% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BTIG Biotechnology Conference
    • Keefe Bank Investor Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: Not updated of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: Not updated of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • ASRS
    • AIDS 2026

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. 

Upgrades: ASR GTX  of note.

Downgrades: None of note.

Initiations:   Buys: SKYH of note.  Sells: None of note.