Morning Note - 07/31/26: Stock Rebound Continues

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 1.66% at 7437.63 from Wednesday lower by -1.52% at 7316.15.
• The S&P 500 sees support now at 7300 from 7400. Resistance is now at 7400 from 7500. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7300.
• S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.
• Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.673% from 4.696%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks are now in a two-week losing streak, with the S&P 500 dropping -0.61% in the last week, ended 7/24. However, it looks like this could be an up week thanks to Thursday's action.
• U.S. moved into Week 23 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Fighting had stopped but Iran restarted attacking U.S. assets and shots are being fired back and forth.
• We are in a 1 day win streak.
• The S&P 500 had its third loss for the month of July of more than -1%. We are now clustering with another loss of -1%. So hunker down with 1 trading day left in the month.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

• Economic news of note.
  • Monthly - Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment out this morning.
  • Weekly –  Baker Hughes Rig Count of note today.
• President Trump’s schedule:
  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Heads to Camp David in the morning at a time TBD
  • Participates in a Cabinet Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Heads to Trump National in Bedminster, NJ after the Cabinet Meeting at a TBD.
• Federal Reserve Speakers of Note: None of note.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

• IPO Filings & News: IOND JMKE REF are coming public this week.
• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
  • INUV:  Form S-3.. Up to 6,086,069 Shares of Common Stock.
• Notes Filed Or Priced: 
• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
• Private Placement:
  • KYN - Completes Private Placement of $50 Million of Notes
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders: None of note.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings
  • ESRT files mixed securities shelf offering.
  • NTRS files mixed securities shelf offering.
  • GH files mixed securities shelf offering.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: AMZN +3.93, NBIX +1.19, MHK +1.09, FSLR +1.02, COLM +0.91, PTCT +0.68, MTD +0.66, MPWR +0.63, KWR +0.53 (>0.50) 
• Misses: MSTR -22.26, AJG -1.56, COIN -0.92, PEN -0.28, HUN -0.26,OLN -0.25, MYGN -0.19, WU -0.11, MTX -0.03, MTZ -0.01, CUBE -0.01, BBAI -0.01.
• Flat: None of note.

Winners From After The Close: AXTI +23.6%, COHU +20.5%, AMZN +8.9% of note.

Losers From After The Close:  KPTI -69%, MYGN -38.9%, MTZ -15.2%, RBLX -14.3%, RDDT -11.8%, AAPL -6.6% of note.

News after the close:

• The AI trade returns with Microsoft and semis leading the way.
• Amazon (AMZN) prelim Q2 revs $200.61 bln vs $197.03 bln FactSet Consensus, reports upside Q2 operating income; guides Q3 revs below consensus.
• AMZN expects to spend approximately $220 bln in CapEx in 2026, up from its prior estimate of $200 bln.
• Apple (AAPL) prelim Q3 $2.02 vs $1.89 FactSet Consensus; revs $109.42 bln vs $109.04 bln FactSet Consensus; included a favorable impact of $0.11 from tariff refunds. 
• AAPL guides for Q4 (Sep) revenues below consensus; expects the impact from supply constraints to increase significantly sequentially
• Coinbase Global (COIN) reports Q2 (Jun) results, misses on revs; Provides Q3 outlook, including Subscription & Services revenue of $500-$800 mln.
• CACI International (CACI) awarded a $500 mln Army contract.
• NOC awarded a $1.84 bln Air Force contract.
• GE awarded a $117.8 mln Navy contract.
• KOSPI jumps 14% as SK HYNIX, SAMSUNG up more than 25%.
• Claude breached real systems during tests Anthropic reviewed 141,006 cybersecurity evaluation runs and found three incidents involving six runs and three outside organizations.
• 10Q Delays - None of note. 

Executive, Corporate Changes:

• Vail Resorts (MTN) announces Bill Hornbuckle has been appointed to the company's board of directors. 

Buybacks of Note:

• Quaker Chemical (KWR) authorizes $250 mln buyback program.

Dividend Info:

• STE increases quarterly dividend to $0.69/share from $0.63/share.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +35.25, NASDAQ 100+328, Dow Jones +347. Europe is higher while Asia is higher as well. Bond yield is at 4.675% from 4.695% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $63,928 from $64,484.

Sector Action:

• Daily Consumer Cyclicals, Industrials, Communication Services, Technology and Utilities were higher
• Daily: Materials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive were lower.
• One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
• Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
• Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
• Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Friday After the Close: None of note.

• Monday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat: CRI +2.81, SONY +12.71, LYB +0.86, CVX +0.51, MGA+0.33, LEA +0.30, NVT +0.29, NWL +0.22, ENB +0.22, CCJ +0.19, PWP +0.14, ETN +0.08, AN +0.08, PRLB +0.07, TROW +0.06, MRNA +0.06, WT +0.05, CL +0.04, FTS +0.02, LIN +0.01 (>1.00)
• Missed: ARES -0.79, XOM -0.04, BTSG -0.02, POR -0.01, CHD -0.01 of note. (<-0.10)
• Flat: None of note.
• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – NVT PRLB BTSG of note.
• Mixed – None of none.
• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – SONY NWL CHD of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth has rebounded.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: REPL +127.4%, AXTI +30.2%, COHU +23.9%, FET +13%, AMZN +12.8%, MPWR +10%, CDNA +8.9%, NXT +8.4%, DXCM +8.2%, KYIV +5.7%, SPXC +5.5%, KWR +5.1%, PRLB +5.1%, RYAN +5%, SEER +4.9%, MGA +4.7%, NWG +4.5%, GH +4.4%, MHK +4.4%, VEON +4.2%, CSTL +4.1%, RIVN +4%, SONY +4%, ABVX +3.8%, FSLR +3.8%, PAX +3.6%, SMCI +3.3%, CVX +3.2%, MTX +3.1%, FND +3.1%, MTD +2.9%, CUBE +2.8%, DRH +2.6%, HTGC +2.2%, TEM +2.1%, ADC +2.1%, NBIX +2%, LPLA +2% of note
• Gap Down: KPTI -67.6%, MYGN -36.7%, RBLX -20.3%, MTZ -14.2%, FLGT -13.9%, CERS -12.8%, GDDY -12.4%, ALHC -11.3%, RDDT -11%, VCYT -9.5%, AAPL -7.3%, SYK -7.2%, WU -6.4%, COIN -5.1%, CTVA -4.7%, DXC -4.3%, DBVT -4%, COLM -3.7%, AU -3.6%, LIN -3.5%, EGO -3.3%, HUN -3.1%, BAK -2.5%, MSTR -2.2%, CRI -2.2%, ILMN -2% of note.

Insider Action: NMM sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. LBRT see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

• A Cyberattack on US Water System. (NYT)
• Situational Awareness Loses 67% in July in AI Stock Rout. (WSJ)
• Citadel Deal With Situational Awareness Halts Downward Spiral in Still Frothy AI Trade. (Bloomberg)
• Market Wrap: Chip Stocks and Amazon Bolster Rebound in Tech. (Bloomberg).
• Apple Slides After Supply Shortage. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:  None of note.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:
  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Greets the White House Internship Program Summer Class at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Makes an Announcement on Freedom Haulers at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in Signing Time at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
• Economic Data Out –
  • Weekly
    • Baker Hughes Rig Count out at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Monthly
    • July Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and expected to drop to 56.5 from 56.70.
    • July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to stay at 54.40.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 60% from 23% of Equities are Positive, and 23% from 12% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:
  • BTIG Biotechnology Conference
  • Keefe Bank Investor Conference
• Top Analyst, Investor: None of note.
• Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
• Fireside Chat: None of note.
• FDA Presentation: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Meetings:
  • ASRS
  • AIDS 2026

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: AXTI IP PLXS SAIA  of note.

Downgrades: RBLX (2) of note.

Initiations:  Buys: FDMT SKYH TBBB  of note.  Sells: None of note.