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Morning Note - 08/03/26: Stocks Higher As Diplomacy Replaces Violence In Iran, U.S. Intervenes in Yen

By Jack Bahrenburg | Market Rebellion · August 3, 2026

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 0.70% at 7489.72 from Thursday higher by 1.66% at 7437.63.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7300. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7300.
  • S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.682% from 4.673%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks are now in a one-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 rising 1.05% in the last week, ended 7/31.
  • U.S. moved into Week 24 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Now we are back to negotiating a deal with Iran.
  • We are in a  2 day win streak.
  • The S&P 500 had its third loss for the month of July of more than -1%. We are no longer clustering with another loss of -1% as we are in a new month

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly -None out this morning.
    • Monthly –  U.S. Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing Index of note.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Signs an Executive Order at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Speakers of Note: None of note.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News:  are coming public this week.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • BBAI files prospectus supplement; relates to co entering into a 100 million share open market sale agreement.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
    • SHAZ files for $691.7 million convertible senior notes offering by selling securityholders; also files for 26,017,577-share common stock offering by selling securityholders.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • SLBT files for 1,040,000 share ordinary share offering by selling shareholders.
    • IINV files for 112,988,070 share common stock offering by selling securityholders.
    • QCOM files prospectus supplement, relates to 17,826,566 share common stock offering by selling stockholders.
    • MTZ filing for 1,219,498 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings
    • HR files mixed securities shelf offering. 
    • PSKY files mixed securities shelf offering.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Winners From Last Week: BHC (6.78 +53.05%), NEOG (12.00 +27.61%), ITGR (121.18 +22.87%), OMER (11.85 +21.04%), ASGN (28.24 +37.09%), CBZ (55.17 +29.42%), QUAD (10.23 +22.66%), FOSL (4.95 +22.1%), GRMN (296.17 +21.87%), BLKB (42.49 +29.9%), AMBA (86.56 +27.18%), MANH (191.52 +26.27%), EXLS (34.10 +23.22%), CTSH (55.34 +21.76%), MSFT (462.70 +21.22%), MKTX (162.33 +39.11%) of note.

Losers From Last Week:  ALNY (205.49 -24.39%), HUN (9.9 -22.7%), OI (7.16 -21.2%), OLN (18.57 -19.98%), LII (419.66 -22.45%), MTZ (266.61 -21.08%), CHRW (148.38 -20.44%), SAIA (350.87 -17.19%), MNRO (12.29 -26.8%), AMKR (50.47 -22.31%), CVLT (116.70 -18%), TREE (32.05 -17.82%) of note.

News after the close:

  • Paramount Skydance (PSKY) extended the expiration dates for its previously announced cash tender offers and exchange offers to 5:00 p.m. ET on August 14, 2026, unless further extended.
  • Paramount Skydance (PSKY) asked federal judge to hold merger trial in November, but states that sued are seeking April time frame.
  • Amgen (AMGN) discloses cybersecurity incident.
  • OpenAI finds more instances of AI agents escaping containment. (Reuters)
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled Fed meetings. (NYT)
  • Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) to join S&P 500 replacing EA on Wednesday; ADI Global Distribution (ADIG) to replace HTZ in the S&P SmallCap 600.
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) Sikorsky Aircraft awarded a $107.3 million US Navy order.
  • US and Israel planning harshest bombing campaigns to date against energy infrastructure targets in Iran THIS HAS BEEN DELAYED OVER THE WEEKEND.
  • 10Q Delays - None of note. 

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • Armin Zerza stepped down for personal reasons as CFO and COO of WMG.

Buybacks of Note:

  • LDOS announces new stock repurchase program for up to 20 million shares of common stock.

Dividend Info:

  •  PEGA said the special cash dividend will be paid September 16, 2026 to shareholders of record on August 17, 2026, excluding certain shareholders identified in the settlement agreement.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +43, NASDAQ 100+133, Dow Jones +412. Europe is higher while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.68% from 4.675% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold is lower while Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $62,508 from $63,928.

Sector Action:

  • Daily All others were higher
  • Daily: Energy and Technology were lower.
  • One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: ECHO+24.22, ATKR +0.37, ITGR +0.22, AVA +0.20, CNA+0.12, MAR +0.11, KRYS +0.06, OCUL +0.05, CNH +0.03, SBH +0.02 of note.
  • Missed: SUPN -1.43, TGTX -0.26, TWST -0.07, SRAD -0.07 of note. (<-0.10)
  • Flat: DEA of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – NVT PRLB BTSG of note.
  • Mixed – None of none.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – SONY NWL CHD of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth is mixed.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up:  ATKR +26.9%, SUPN +12%, FERG +8%, INDV +5.4%, CNH +3.7%, OCS +2.7%, ITGR +2.7%, AMGN +2.2% of note
  • Gap Down: GME -11.6%, USO -6.3%, XPEV -3.7%, LI -3%, SO -2.9%, CNCK -2.2% of note.

Insider Action: NMM sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. LBRT see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • U.S. intervened to help the Japanese Yen over the weekend. (NYT)
  • Trump pivots back to diplomacy on Iran. (WSJ)
  • Astra Zeneca Shares fall on deal talk with Bristol Meyers. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks rise as oil plunge eases presssure on yields. (Bloomberg).
  • AMC Posts Record-Breaking Weekend Revenue • AMC generated the highest weekend revenue in its 106-year history, setting new company records for admissions and food & beverage revenue. • More than 10.2 million moviegoers attended AMC Theatres and ODEON Cinemas from Wednesday through Sunday, marking AMC's highest-attended weekend of the decade.

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:  None of note.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Signs an Executive Order at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • None of note.
    • Monthly
      • July Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in earlier at 53.80.
      • June Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.1%.
      • July ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 54% from 53.30%

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 67% from 60% of Equities are Positive, and 23% from 23% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
  • Top Analyst, Investor: None of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: IR of note.

Downgrades: MSA FIBK of note.

Initiations:  Buys: SCHW SHW CRCL of note.  Sells: None of note.