Morning Note – 07/20/26: Stocks Rebound To Start New Week Dominated By Earnings

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -1.01% at 7457.69 from Thursday lower by -0.51% at 7533.77.
• The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7500. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7600. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400.
• S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.
• Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.562% from 4.525%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks are now in a one-week losing streak, with the S&P 500 dropping-1.55% in the last week, ended 7/17.
• U.S. moves into Week 22 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Fighting has broken out on both sides and there is no deal. It is FUBAR.
• 2 Day Losing Streak on the S&P 500 started on Thursday.
• The S&P 500 had its first loss of more than -1%. for July. One more loss of greater than -1% and we could be clustering with another loss of -1%.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:ther

• Economic news of note.
  • Weekly –
    • None of note.
  • Monthly-
    • June Leading Indicators are out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to stay at 0.1%.
• Fed Speakers of Note today:  None

  • The Federal Reserve (FOMC) blackout period runs through Thursday, July 30, 2026.

• President Trump’s schedule:
  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in Signing Time at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

• IPO Filings & News: None of note.
• Secondaries Filed Or Priced: None of note.
• Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
  • PENG closes $750 million 0.00% convertible notes offering due 2031.
• Private Placement: None of note.
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders:
  • AVTX files for 128,189 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • SHMD files for 10,362,693 ordinary share offering by selling shareholders, relates to convertible notes.
  • OTLK files for 17,258,065 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • QTTB files for 6.875 million share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • DGXX files for 380,590 subordinate voting share offering by selling shareholders.
  • FEIM also files for 1 million share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • SPCE files mixed securities shelf offering.
  • NRGV files for $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.
  • FEIM files for $100 million mixed securities shelf offering.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: None of note.
• Misses: None of note.
• Flat: None of note.

Winners From Last Week:, CDNA (39.73 +39.35%), IOVA (5.00 +18.2%), OEC (6.85 +20.39%),  MAN (52.34 +35.21%), RHI (41.80 +29.01%), EAF (6.93 +17.66%), BCO (120.12 +15.23%), CTAS (204.45 +13.81%),  RH (187.88 +13.63%), PYPL (56.56 +22.11%), SAIL (15.68 +14.37%),  PBF (62.75 +18%), PARR (76.25 +15.92%), NOG (21.19 +14.42%), DK (63.25 +13.94%), GPRE (19.23 +13.85%), CVI (35.13 +13.43%), COTY (2.61 +16.52%).

Losers From Last Week: RGNX (9.89 -29.1%), NTLA (11.38 -19.98%), SLDB (8.72 -16.31%), FLY (19.27 -20.01%), PNR (62.45 -18.03%), IBM (212.67 -26.04%), MXL (71.84 -21.31%), AMBA (61.84 -20%), MRVL (188.68 -19.99%), GLW (154.61 -19.01%), SIMO (264.33 -19.01%), CIEN (374.41 -18.73%), NOK (10.12 -18.65%), BB (8.99 -18.05%), ICHR (82.87 -17.38%), CEVA (37.97 -16.62%), CLS (301.34 -16.26%), ARI (6.98 -33.08%), STI (6.33 -23.09%).

After The Close:

• Trump hosted FIFA Party at Trump Tower ahead of World Cup Final on Sunday.
• 10Q Delays – None of note.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

• SPIR names Eric Mellinger chief commercial officer, effective Aug. 3.
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) extends note exchange and tender offers to July 31.
• HIMS announces that Chief Accounting Officer, Irene Becklund, will depart the company, effective October 9, 2026.
• XRM makes executive appointments, including a new COO Aaron Roseth  and Robert Zeiller has been appointed as Chief Development Officer and Head of Seniors Housing of Chiron Real Estate and Inter-American Management.
• LNN announces that CFO Sam Hinrichsen has notified the Board of his intent to resign, effective August 31, 2026.
• SPRY announces that CMO Sarina Tanimoto, M.D. has ceased employment.

Buybacks of Note:

• VALU renews $2 million stock repurchase program.

Dividend Info:

• ITUB FDX VST DTE FTV BRKR MAIN OTF DX LTC ARCO GIII UTZ go Ex-Div Monday.
• Ex-Div Tuesday – None of note.
• SJM raises quarterly dividend to $1.12 per share from $1.10 per share.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +23.25, NASDAQ 100 +178.25, Dow Jones +105. Europe is mixed while Asia is mixed as well. Bond yield is at 4.565% from 4.525% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil is lower and Brent Crude is higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and flat against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $64,257 from $63,116

Sector Action:

• Daily Technology, Industrials, Utilities, Materials and Consumer Cyclicals were higher.
• Daily Real Estate was lower.
• One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
• Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
• Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
• Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Monday After the Close:

• Tuesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat: AMC +0.14 of note.
• Missed: DPZ -0.10 of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Still to Report:  None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – DPZ of note.
• Mixed – None of none.
• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth remains in good shape.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: HUT +9.3%, DPZ +7.1%, DGXX +4.2%, GLSI +4.2%, OTLK +3.6%, EVEX +3.2%, ESLT +2.9%, EVTL +2.7%, SPCX +1.8%of note
• Gap Down: AGCC -5.9%, QTTB -3.4%, DBVT -2.9%, NRGV -2.6%, PLD -2.3%, PENG -2% of note.

Insider Action: NMM sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

• FDA Walks Back Finding of Cyclospora Parasite as Outbreak Probe Continues. (WSJ)
• U.S. and Iran Signal Glimmers of Hope for Diplomacy. (NYT)
• The Odyssey Stuns With Record Weekend of $275 Million. (USA Today)
• US Bombs for Ninth Day In A Row. (Bloomberg)
• Market Wrap: Stocks Climb as Chip Rout Pauses and Oil Prices Ease. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: None
  • The Federal Reserve (FOMC) blackout period runs through Thursday, July 30, 2026.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:
  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in Signing Time at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
• Economic Data Out –
  • Weekly
    • None of note.
  • Monthly
    • June Leading Indicators are out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to stay at 0.1%.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 29% from 66% of Equities are Positive, and 32% from 32% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences: None of note.
• Top Analyst, Investor: OCUL of note.
• Shareholder Meetings: RNTX of note.
• Fireside Chat: None of note.
• FDA Presentation: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Meetings:
  • ASRS
  • Farnborough International Airshow

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. 

Upgrades: FRVO HOG URBN YETI of note.

Downgrades: PENG TFC of note.

Initiations:   Buys: ANTX APO DPC NNBR RRX SOPH STIM TTRX VGNT of note.  Sells: None of note.