Morning Note – 07/28/26: Stocks Mixed As Semi Circular Sell-off Continues

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.02% at 7413.18 from Friday higher by 0.05% at 7411.98.
• The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7500. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7600. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400.
• S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.
• Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.622% from 4.639%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks are now in a two-week losing streak, with the S&P 500 dropping -0.61% in the last week, ended 7/24.
• U.S. moves into Week 23 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Fighting has stopped as there are questions about munitions inventory.
• 2 Day Winning Streak on the S&P 500 geban on Friday
• The S&P 500 had its second loss for the month of July of more than -1%. We are now clustering with another loss of -1%. So hunker down with 4 trading days left in the month.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

• Economic news of note.
  • Monthly – Case Schiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence.
  • Weekly – API Petroleum Institute Data of note.
• 7-Year Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
• Fed Speakers of Note today:  The Federal Reserve (FOMC) blackout period runs until Thursday, July 30, 2026.
• President Trump’s schedule:
  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Meets with the President of Ukraine at 9:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Meets with the Prime Minister of the State of Israel at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Attends the Funeral for Senator Lindsey Graham at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Tele-Rally at 6:30 p.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

• IPO Filings & News: IOND JMKE REF are coming public this week.
• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
  • MASK: Form F-1.. Up to 15,400,000 Class A Ordinary Shares.
  • RBNE – Closing of $3.0 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.
• Notes Filed Or Priced:
  • CHTR: Form S-3ASR.. Debt Securities – Guarantee of Debt Securities.
• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
• Private Placement: None of note.
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders: None of note.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • AEHR files mixed securities shelf offering. 

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: FFIV +0.73, SANM +0.54, NUE +0.38, SSD +0.37, CLS +0.24, AMKR +0.22, PFG +0.16, APLD +0.13, AGYS +0.09, SUI +0.08, NTB +0.07, OPK +0.07, CDNS +0.06 of note. (+0.05 >)
• Misses: CINF -0.41, NE -0.14, BRO -0.01 of note.
• Flat: BRX, NVTS of note.

Winners From The Week: PMN +16.8%, OPK +8.1%, CLS +7.3%, APLD +5.5%, and CDNS +4.5%

Losers From The Week:  NE -6.7%, UHS -4.1%, BRO -3.4%.

News After The Close:

• Welltower (WELL) posts business update, directs investors to website.
• Red Robin Gourmet Burger (RRGB) said it is now serving Garage Beer Classic Light and Classic Lime at all U.S. locations, becoming the first national restaurant chain to carry the brand chainwide. The beer brand is co-owned by Jason and Travis Kelce; the rollout began July 21.
• Trump Administration is getting close to approving a new AI framework. (The Information)
• Lantheus (LNTH) – Curium nearing roughly $7 billion acquisition of Lantheus.
• 10Q Delays – None of note. 

Executive, Corporate Changes:

• KYMR names former Johnson & Johnson immunology leader Terence Rooney as CMO.
• EQIX names Chris Audie chief product officer, appoints Bruce Owen EVP of global markets. 

Buybacks of Note: None of note.

Dividend Info:

• ASML FAST PAYX CE NEXA goes Ex-Div Tuesday.
• No stock goes Ex-Div Wednesday.
• SLDE board approved the start of a quarterly common dividend of $0.07 per share.
• HWM increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.14 per share from $0.12 per share

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 -9.50, NASDAQ 100 -255, Dow Jones +100. Europe is higher while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.622% from 4.639% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $65,291 from $65,

Sector Action:

• Daily Consumer Defensive, Heallthcare, Real Estate, Communication Services and Utilities were higher
• Daily: Technology, Materials, Industrials and Financials were lower.
• One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
• Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
• Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
• Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Tuesday After the Close:

• Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat: CNC +1.43, PII +1.22, INCY +0.87, DINO +0.82, HRI +0.67, ABG +0.51, PJT +0.40, OSK +0.26 of note.
• Missed: GKS -0.73, BA -0.72, XPRO -0.02, CBU -0,02, AB -0.01 of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning –  OSK SHW PYPL UPS CARR XPRO of note.
• Mixed – SPGI of none.
• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth has rebounded.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: PMN +21.3%, OPK +9.7%, UL +7%, HAPN +6.7%, TE +6.7%, CRNT +5.1%, WELL +4.7%, CARR +3.6%, TFII +3.5%, AXTA +3.5%, PII +3.1%, CDNS +2.8%, JNJ +2.3%, APLD +2.2%of note
• Gap Down: AMKR -7.7%, NVTS -7.4%, SANM -6.7%, NE -6.5%, BCS -6.1%, KFRC -5.2%, AEHR -4.2%, UHS -4%, CINF -2.9%, CDP -2.8%, BRO -2.2%, HLT -2.1%of note.

Insider Action: None sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

• Trump Backs New Iran Talks But Unclear What He Hopes To Achieve This Time. (NYT)
• Chip Sell-Off Deepens in Asia. (WSJ)
• Chip Rout Deepens on Circularl Funding, China Competition Fears. (Bloomberg)
• Market Wrap: US Stocks Fall as Chip Slump Fuels Rotation Trade. (Bloomberg).

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:  The Federal Reserve (FOMC) blackout period runs through Thursday, July 30, 2026.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:
  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Meets with the President of Ukraine at 9:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Meets with the Prime Minister of the State of Israel at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Attends the Funeral for Senator Lindsey Graham at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Tele-Rally at 6:30 p.m. EDT.
• Economic Data Out –
  • Weekly
    • API Petroleum Institute Data out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Monthly
    • May Case Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 1.3% from 1.1%.
    • July Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 92.10 from 91.20.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 46% from 34% of Equities are Positive, and 16% from 0% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:
  • BTIG Biotechnology Conference
  • Keefe Bank Investor Conference
• Top Analyst, Investor: BOSC of note.
• Shareholder Meetings: DRVN FUBO GLRE VFC of note.
• Fireside Chat: None of note.
• FDA Presentation: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Meetings:
  • ASRS
  • AIDS 2026

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. 

Upgrades: CIB ISRG MDT BUY SOLV SYK V of note.

Downgrades: LAUR RXO   of note.

Initiations:   Buys: ATEC BDX BLCO EW SGHT SIBN STE ZBH CRWD TENX of note.  Sells: INSP STAA of note.