Morning Note – 08/11/26: Stocks Up Modestly

Due to travel, today’s output will be limited. We will be back to normal on Wednesday, barring any travel delays.

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.06% at 7753.11 from Friday higher by 0.62% at 7757.64 from Thursday lower by -0.18% at 7709.96.
• The S&P 500 sees support now at 7700 from 7600. Resistance is now at 7800 from 7700. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to7700.
• Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.709% from 4.668%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks are now in a two-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 rising 3.58% in the last week, ended 8/7.
• U.S. moves into Week 25 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Now we are back to negotiating a deal with Iran.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

• Economic news of note.
  • Weekly – API Petroleum Institute Data of note.
  • Monthly –  NFIB Small Business Optimism and Existing Home Sales of note.
• President Trump’s schedule:
  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in Policy Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in Policy Meeting at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Heads to Ohio at a time to be determined.
  • Attends the Patriot Games  Finals at 7:00 p.m. EDT
  • Returns to White House after the Patriot Games.
• Fed Speakers of Note:  None of note.
• 3-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

• IPO Filings & News: Switch, Inc. has filed confidentially for a US IPO.
• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
  • AHR launches 13.25M-share common stock offering on forward basis.
  • FA  launches secondary offering of 12.5M common shares.
  • HLI files for common stock offering.
• Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
• Private Placement: None of note.
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders:
  • FA  files for 87,450,000 share common stock offering by selling stockholder.
  • HLI also files for common stock offering by selling security holders.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • MLTX files mixed securities shelf offering.

AFTER THE CLOSE:

Earnings After The Close:

• • Beats:  HPK +0;57, RCKT +0.22, WBTN +0.11, ALC +0.09, RPD +0.09. HLIO +0.08, SPG +0.07, AMTM +0.06, VERA +0.06, ACM +0.03, PLUG +0.01 of note.
  • Misses: EROK -0.83, ASTS -.0.45, HIMS -0.32%, BBIO -0.20, RUM -0.19, JBS -0.11 of note.
  • Flat:  None of note.
• Winners From After The Close:  FRMI +24.3%, BW +36.9%, FF +20.6%, NIQ +16.9%, FRMI +24.3%, QMCO+15.3% of note.
• Losers From Last Week: UPWK -20.9%, UPWK -20.9%, LIF -19.8%, ELVA -17.6%, RKLB -7.8% -of note.

News after the close:

• • Alomar Bosciences (ALMR) expands Alzheimer’s Disease Data Initiative, Gates Ventures partnership.
  • Penske Automotive special committee hires Moelis, Paul Weiss for $210/share take-private review.
  • BA awarded a $109 mln Navy order.
  • AVXL delays 10-Q.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

• • INR names Cary Baetz CFO; David Sproule resigns.
  • FNKO names Kristin Hamilton chief commercial officer.
  • CELH names Bohannon chief commercial officer; President/COO Hanson departs.

Buybacks of Note: None of note.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +17.50, NASDAQ 100 +143.50, Dow Jones +49. Europe is higher ex FTSE while Asia is higher ex China. Bond yield is at 4.711% from 4.668% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold is lower with Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $64.283.50 from $65,138.

Sector Action:

• Daily Technology, Utilities, Real Estate, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, Energy and Industrials led the way higher
• Daily: Consumer Defensive was lower.
• One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
• Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
• Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
• Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, B, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Tuesday After the Close:

• Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

• Beat: CAH +0.49, MIDD +0.26, IMOS +0.16, TME +0.15, ETOR +0.07, ARMK +0.04, JBI +0.03, LEGN +0.03, VG +0.03, SFD +0.02, ONON +0.01 of note.
• Missed: NVRI (0.32), CDNL (0.20), SE (0.16) of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning: HLIO, HIMS, RKLB, RUM, SPG, 
• Mixed –  None of none.
• Negative or Mixed Guidance: UPWK, WBTN

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market::

• Gap Up:  BW +34.5%, FF +20.2%, RIOT +19.2%, FRMI +19%, NIQ +15.1%, PLUG +14.7%, QMCO +13%, APEI +12.9%, IMOS +10.7%, FLOC +8.6%, KOPN +8.6%, FLOC +8.6%, AP +7.6%, RPD +6.5%, HPK +4.8%, SUPV +4.2%, AMPY +4.1%, RPAY +3.9%, P +3.8%, ALC +3.3%, HSHP +3.1%, NB +2.9%, VERA +2.5%, SLN +2.1%  of note
• Gap Down:    LIF -21.1%, OPFI -20.8%, UPWK -19.1%, ACVA -18.8%, PAL -18.5%, AREN -18.2%, ELVA -17%, TCMD -15.9%, ONON -15.6%, WBTN -9.9%, EVC -9.1%, TTEC -8.9%, GCTS -8.6%, AMTM -8%, RKLB -7.4%, NUS -7.2%, USAR -6.6%, SVM -6.6%, ESLT -6.6%, HIMS -6.3%, ALMS -5.3%, ACM -4.8%, JAN -4.2%, IAUX -4.1%, TME -4%, FA -3.8%, AHR -2.5%, FNKO -2.4%, CNS -2.2%, SFD -2.1%

Insider Action: None sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

• Gulf States Accept A New Normal In The Strait of Hormuz, Iran is in Control. (WSJ)
• Trump Said To Have Used Military Jet to Sceretl Leave Turkey. (NYT)
• Intel Raises $20 Billion in Upsized Share Sale For AI Plans. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
  • None of note,

• President Trump’s schedule for today:
  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in Policy Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in Policy Meeting at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Heads to Ohio at a time to be determined.
  • Attends the Patriot Games  Finals at 7:00 p.m. EDT
  • Returns to White House after the Patriot Games.
• Economic Data Out –
  • Monthly
    • July NFIB Small Business Optimism is due out at 6:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 97.10 from 97,90,
    • July Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 4.07 million from 4,09 million.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 93% from 100% of Equities are Positive, and 4% from 44% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:
  • BAC SMID Cap. Conference
  • Canaccord Growth Conference
  • Davidson Western Bank Summit
  • Davidson Small Cap Conference
  • DB Chicago Industrials Summit
  • KeyBanc Leadership Forum
  • Needham MedTech & Diagnostics Conference
  • Oppenheimer TIC Conference
  • Stifel Biotech Summer
  • Wells Fargo Services Forum
• Top Analyst, Investor: AUGO BC RGLD ULTA of note.
• Shareholder Meetings: ANAB GXAI MH MNRO PETS QRVO of note.
• Fireside Chat: None of note.
• FDA Presentation: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: SEZL SNDK PTGX FCFS  of note.

Downgrades: TTD KMT DOCS CMP AAPL AMRZ of note.

Initiations:  Buys: STND (3) CSQR (3) of note.  Sells: None of note.