Morning Note – 08/19/26: Merck and Moderna Make Big Advance In Cancer Vaccine

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Tuesday lower by -0.69% at 7691.76 from Monday lower by -0.52% at 7745.06.
• The S&P 500 sees support now at 7600 from 7700. Resistance is now at 7700 from 7800. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7600.
• The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index ETF) sees support now at 710 from 720. Resistance is now at 720 from 730.
• Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.698% from 4.736%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks are now in a three-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 rising 0.36% in the last week, ended 8/14.
• U.S. moves into Week 26 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Now we are back to negotiating a deal with Iran.
• The S&P 500 is now on a 3-day losing streak. That said, the S&P 500 did not lose -1% by the close.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note

• Economic news of note.
  • Weekly – MBA Mortgage Applications and Crude Oil Inventories of note.
  • Monthly – None of note.
  • 20-Year Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
• President Trump’s schedule:
  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Delivers Remarks with Technology Leaders at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
• Fed Speakers of Note:  
  • None of note.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

• IPO Filings & News: due out this week
  • LYNX (Lyntris Inc.) – Expected Wednesday, August 19. Offering 24.0M shares in an estimated price range of $19.00–$22.00 (raising ~$492M–$607M) on the NYSE.
  • SCATU (SC Acquisition Corp.) – Scheduled for the week of August 17. Offering 10.0M units at $10.00 (raising $100M).
• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
  • AMLX launches $350 million common stock offering.
  • EPM announces it has commenced an underwritten public offering of shares of its common stock.
  • WRAP – Closing of $12.0 Million Registered Direct Offering of Common Stock – Closing of $12.0 Million Registered Direct Offering of Common Stock.
• Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
  • WYFI proposes $250 million convertible notes private placement, tied to 2031 note exchanges of note.
  • BLZE launches $150 million convertible senior notes offering due 2031.
• Private Placement: None of note.
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders:
  • FRNM files for 75,188,742 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • ALH – Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock by Selling Stockholder.
  • NUWE: Form S-3.. 1,350,217 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

AFTER THE CLOSE:

Earnings After The Close:

• • Beats: KEYS +0.29, JKHY +0.10, TOL +0.04 of note.
  • Misses: LZB -0.06, MRCY -0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Movers after the close yesterday: 

• • Winners: KEYS +2.7%, CCC +2.2%, CW +2.1% of note.
  • Losers: WYFI -20.5%, LZB -16.3%, EPM -11.2%, MRCY -10.5%, AUNA -9%, BLZE -7.8%, FRNM -4.1% of note.

News after the close::

• • Spider-Man: Brand New Day swings to highest grossing domestic film of all time for Cinemark (CNK).
  • Infleqtion (INFQ) to test quantum sensing in Colorado to advance U.S critical minerals security.
  • American Airlines (AAL) to bring back TV screens on flights. (BBC News)
  • INFQ FIRY delays 10-Q.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

• • SWIM names Todd Antonelli chief commercial officer.

Buybacks of Note:

• • CW expands 2026 share repurchase program by $100 million.

Dividend Changes & Ex-Dividend Stocks:

• • Stocks Going Ex-Dividend Wednesday: EQIX $5.16, CVX $1.78, CSL $1.25, MPC $1.00, ED $0.8875, MKTX $0.78, HAS $0.70, RMD $0.66, FTS $0.64, BOKF $0.63, AFL $0.61, APO $0.5625, ADM $0.52, CHCT $0.33, ENR $0.30, NGS $0.15, ARMK $0.12, L $0.0625
  • Stocks Going Ex-Dividend Thursday: MSFT $0.91, WPM $0.155, TRU $0.13, FBY $0.07, FND $0.05
  • TRST increases quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share from $0.38 per share. 

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +3, NASDAQ 100 -55, Dow Jones +61. Europe is lower ex CAC while Asia is lower ex Hang Seng. Bond yield is at 4.698% from 4.74% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $64,340 from $64.300.

Sector Action:

• Daily Materials, Energy, Healthcare, Real Estate, Utilities and Consumer Defensive led the way higher.
• Daily: Communication Services, Financials and Technology were lower.
• One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
• Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
• Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
• Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, B, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Wednesday After the Close

• Thursday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

• Beat: TGT +1.76, KC +0.62, LOW +0.18, ADI +0.11, EL +0.07,  VIK +0.05, TJX +0.03  of note.
• Missed: None of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: TGT ADI of note
• Mixed –None of note.
• Negative or Mixed Guidance: LOW of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market::

• Gap Up: EL +7.4%, KC +7.3%, SKHY +4.5%, PPC +3.4%, YMM +3.2%, FLNG +2.8%, KEYS +2.6%, TWST +2.2% of note
• Gap Down: WYFI -20.5%, LZB -18.2%, EPM -12%, MRCY -10.7%, TGT -3.9%, SNN -3.8%, FRNM -3.3%, BLZE -2.7%, ZTO -2.6%, AUNA -2.5%, LOW -2.5%, RKLB -2.3%, IONQ -2.2% of note.

Insider Action: NTHI RSG FRPH sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e., “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

• Novel Cancer Vaccine Prevents Melanoma From Returning in First For mRNA. (WSJ)
• Trump Pauses 50% Tariffs on Some Canadian Products. (WSJ)
• U.A.E. halts trade with Iran Says It Was Targeted with Missiles From Iran. (NYT)
• Market Wrap: Stock Futures Waver as Oil Keeps Pressure on Bonds. (Bloomberg)
• Target Boosts Sales Outlook. (Bloomberg)
• Merck (MRK) and Moderna (MRNA) Announce Phase 3 INTerpath-001 Trial of Intismeran Autogene Plus KEYTRUDA® Met Endpoints of Recurrence-Free Survival (RFS) and Distant Metastasis-Free Survival (DMFS) in Patients With Completely Resected Stage IIB-IV Melanoma. (Bloomberg)
• OpenAI’s second-quarter sales show tepid growth compared with Anthropic. Revenue grew by 18% from the first to the second quarter, while its losses deepened, in results that disappointed some shareholders. (WSJ)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
  • None of note.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:
  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Delivers Remarks with Technology Leaders at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
• Economic Data Out –
  • Monthly – None of note
  • Weekly
    • MBA Mortgage Applications out at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Crude Oil Inventories Out At 10:30 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 60% from 83% of Equities are Positive, and 20% from 24% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences: None of note.
• Top Analyst, Investor: None of note.
• Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
• Fireside Chat: None of note.
• FDA Presentation: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: D  of note.

Downgrades: BIDU CCOI CRSR MREO  of note.

Initiations:  Buys: DFTX EDIT GRRR SCTX BUY of note.  Sells: AFL of note.