The Sunday Swell: August 9, 2026 Session

Sitting in the lineup and searching the horizon for the next wave to catch…

Sundays are my time to hit the “reset” button. I spend the morning running through various screens to build out my buy/short watchlists for the week ahead.

I want to emphasize the word watchlist. Whether these names turn into actual trades depends entirely on how the week develops and if the price action hits my own specific execution zones. Before we dive into this week’s list, a few quick notes to set the stage:

• The “Teach a Man to Fish” Disclaimer: This weekly update is for educational purposes. My goal is to show you exactly how I utilize the tools at my disposal—many of which you have access to. The star of the show is the Erlanger Chartroom Software. Having run the nightly processing for Erlanger Research for years, I know this system inside and out. I’m here to show you how to drive the car, not just give you the GPS coordinates.
• The Secret Sauce: My idea generation focuses on a “Triple Threat” of data: Short Interest (Educational Video), Options (Educational Article on MR and this is the main focus of a majority of my ideas), and Seasonality (Educational Video 1 and Educational Video 2). I often layer this with a fundamental quant filter from Revelation Investment Research. This helps me identify “1+1=3” opportunities or, conversely, flags the stocks we should stay far away from on the long side.  TIP: In Market Rebellion Squeeze Play Pro Activity Posts tab, enter in search “training” to bring up other various articles on the reports and how to use them.
• Know Your Style: My style is a bit different from Geoff’s. We complement each other, but you need to understand that these ideas are often shorter-term and more aggressive. I don’t always wait for the “all-clear” signal. Sometimes I’m catching a falling knife on a long or standing in front of a freight train on a short—taking small, tactical positions on aggressive charts looking for a reversal.

I might trigger on a daily Heikin Ashi candle turning green, while Geoff might wait for price action to cross a Displaced Moving Average (Educational Video). You might take one of these names and apply your own triggers—RSI, Stochastics, or standard MAs.  Whenever I do this, I think of the movie Hitch. There’s a scene where Will Smith is teaching Kevin James how to dance and tells him, “This is where you live. Right here.” (Video Here). It’s about staying in your lane. Take these ideas but apply the triggers that work for your risk tolerance.

So, let’s jump in. I feel like a kid again with my Churchill fins on, about to jump into 5ft Sandy’s (that’s 10ft mainland!) on a glassy day. Just make sure you read all the caution signs on the beach before you dive in headfirst.

Subject: Risk On! Lake Surfing & Summer Illiquidity

Howzit Fellow Squeeze Players!

Back in the saddle after being away last weekend! While traveling, I had an unexpected chance to “surf” up at Lake Sunapee. Trying something new always carries a little risk, but the reward was awesome.

Some friends goaded me into trying “skurfing”. After watching their kids—fresh out of college—pull off maneuvers that made my knees ache just looking at them, I figured: what do I have to lose besides my ego? With some coaching and a little cheating by hanging onto the tow rope early on, next thing I knew, I was carving up freshwater!

Risk/Reward is a mantra that comes into play in the markets every single day.

“Risk On” is the term we use when explosive, speculative moves ignite across equities—which accurately describes the residual watchlist from two weeks ago. The setup was textbook: a dense cluster of long candidates showing heavy put activity stacked on top of elevated short interest. That combination is pure rocket fuel when the turn triggers.

Clearing the Decks: Short Leashes in Late Summer

I’m not big on chasing names after outsized moves up or down, so I’m using this weekend as a reset and punting a bunch of old names off the active watchlist.

It wasn’t all smooth sailing for the watchlist either—some setups started to play out beautifully, only to violently flip the switch in the other direction. (Looking right at you, BAX and IOVA!).

Moving into mid-August, we need to keep a very short leash on positions. Trading desks are thinning out as Wall Street heads off to enjoy the tail end of summer, and most Q2 earnings are officially in the rearview mirror.

• Illiquid Markets = Sharp Spikes: Thin volume doesn’t mean zero opportunity—it means illiquid tape that can produce sudden, outsized volatility in both directions.

• Watch the VIX: Keep a close eye on the VIX hovering at these depressed levels. Low readings can breed complacency right before a sudden shift in the breeze.

Phil Erlanger recorded a classic video many moons ago breaking down how he tracks volatility: Better Ways to Follow the VIX. It’s well worth a re-watch as liquidity dries up.

Data Alert: Fresh exchange-reported Short Interest drops into the Erlanger database Tuesday night. Be ready to check out the Erlanger Research Chartroom’s Library on Wednesday morning!

The Background Tracks: Prep Listening

While resetting the quote sheets and prepping the fresh lists this weekend, I had these three excellent episodes running in the background:

• Goldman Sachs: The Markets | Why US Stocks May ‘Grind Higher’: Discuss institutional positioning and why low summer liquidity paired with systematic buying could keep pushing equities up a “grind-higher” slope.

• The All-In Podcast | Brain Drain, SpaceX’s Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse: The Besties break down big-tech capex fallout, private market write-downs, and what the massive Valuation shifts mean for late-stage venture sentiment.

• The Macro Trading Floor | On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY: Alf and Brent deliver a masterclass on options position sizing during thin summer markets, analyzing the Japanese Yen unwinds and how macro traders navigate Fed rate uncertainty.

Let’s have a great week out there! Keep your risk tight, respect the VIX, and I’ll see you in the lineup!

 

From previous Sunday Swell Sessions Watch Lists (just search the term “SWELL” under the Activity Posts page.

• • Keeping on the long watch list for opportunity to unfold still:  PLUG, NOK, GEV
  • Keeping on the sell/short watch list for opportunity to unfold still: DG, BAC, CROX, PII, OXY
  • Removing on long watch list as price action unfolded or underlying data components does not support it anymore: UEC, SOUN, RDW, RR, C, HTZ (finally popped!), LUMN, NVTS, MCHP, UUUU, LUNR, IONQ, HSY, EME, MIR, RUN, WH, RKT, GRAB, JOBY, LUMN, RGTI, UEC, USAR, SMR, QUBT, NN, BBAI, AON, CSCO, IREN.
  • Removing on sell/short watch list as price action unfolded or underlying data components does not support it anymore: V, BAX, ROKU, NSP, IOVA.

New weekly additions to the trading watch list for me: 

From Erlanger Research Chartroom Library Reports:

MR Long Ideas – PC 10d PER Ratio High:

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Various Options Scans:

I source ticker lists from various scanners and drop them into an Erlanger Chartroom Quotesheet. (Tip: You can simply copy your own list of tickers and paste them directly into the ‘Symbol’ column). I place these in my custom Erlanger Workspace (*.CRW file—see this Educational Video for the setup). This week, a high-volume options screen flagged the following names for excessive negative sentiment (put activity). I am looking at a turnaround to the upside on my Long watch list.

Secondly, let’s head into slightly deeper water with a screen I call the ‘Low Country Boil.’ Living down here in the Lowcountry—and hitting the local beaches whenever a Hurricane Swell rolls in to keep my Hawaiian roots intact—I’ve learned that a proper boil isn’t about a quick flash in the pan. It’s about the simmer.  This specific screen is designed to catch lower priced stocks with options activity that is slowly building and largely undetected. Specifically, I’m watching for that slow, building swell of negative put activity. When it hits that boiling point where the sentiment is just too stretched, we look for the turnaround. It’s about spotting the wave while it’s still just a ripple on the horizon, long before it breaks for everyone else.  Not every indicator lines up perfectly, the waters are choppy here so navigate carefully.

KEEL, FLNC, EZPW

Revelation Screens

This showed up on one of my Revelation Screens (i.e. positive fundamentals).  Underlying Erlanger items seems good for a long idea on the watch list:

FTI

 

UOA Review

Bonus Section: UOA!  Sundays I like to export from the UOA section of Market Rebellion the weekly hits and size them up in Erlanger Chartroom for Short Squeezes and Put Squeezes (Long watch list):

SGHC, NIO, EIX

 

To keep things balanced, I have a couple of names for the Short/Sell watchlist. Keeping with the theme: I’m looking for these building waves to finally break.  Generally, these are the flip-side setups in the options data—places where the call activity is becoming excessive even as the price keeps climbing. If you are long these names, you need to be hyper-aware of your surroundings and the potential dangers.  It reminds me of surfing Tonggs in front of the Outrigger Canoe Club back in high school. There was a massive boat winch from an 1878 ship wreck sitting just inside the break on a very shallow reef. You’d take off on a beautiful, good-sized wave, but you had to know exactly where that winch was. These charts are the same: the ride might feel great right now, but you’re potentially heading straight for the reef. Navigate carefully.

MR Short Ideas – CP 10d PER Ratio High:

ELF, SHAK, CBRL (see if better luck this time vs. early July), PATH

 

Revelation Screens

This showed up on one of my Revelation Screens (i.e. negative fundamentals).  Underlying Erlanger items seems gloomy enough for a sell/short idea on the watch list:

EVLV

UOA Review

I also took a weeks’ worth of ‘Bearish’ Unusual Options Activity from the Market Rebellion UOA Elite Service. My goal was to see which of those bets aligned with the negative sentiment readings we’re seeing in the Erlanger Chartroom.  Here are some names that aligned:

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Various Options Scans:

I source ticker lists from various scanners and drop them into an Erlanger Chartroom Quotesheet. (Tip: You can simply copy your own list of tickers and paste them directly into the ‘Symbol’ column). I place these in my custom Erlanger Workspace (*.CRW file—see this Educational Video for the setup). This week, a high-volume options screen flagged the following names for excessive positive sentiment (call activity). I am looking at a turnaround to the downside on my Short/Sell watch list.

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