TBO - SMH Update 8-5

8-5

Traders are reporting taking off SMH. Current mid on IC ~1.30.

Time Bandit Idea for Expiration of 14AUG, 2026

In SMH consider selling the August 14, 2026 Expiration (14AUGL26) Expiration 505-635 Iron Condor for about $2.05 mid price with stock around $571

Consider SMH sell 14AUG 505-635 IC

SMH

Buy 495 Put
Sell 505 Put
Sell 635 Call
Buy 645 Call

Minimum $1.90 with mid around $2.05

Technicals: Straddle is $44.7(IV Move on TOS is $47.43 ) and strikes are $66 to the downside and $64 to the upside. The Average True Range is $27.6

Risk: The total risk of the trade is defined by the distance between your long and short strike of your spread ($10) minus the amount of money that you sold the Iron Condor for.  For this spread we are getting around $2.05 so our risk is $7.95

Reward: Our reward will be maxed out if the stock stays between our two short strikes and will be equal to the amount you sold the condor for.  Maximum reward would be $2.05

Adjustments: Our upside morph will be executed only when the stock has broken up above our upside resistance line and commences a technical breakout. Our downside morph will be executed only when the stock has broken down below our downside support line and commences a technical breakdown.

***Trade Management: For those wanting to reduce their risk sooner, these levels can be used as breakouts for an early morph:

Upside early morph levels that can be considered: $618.17 (7/9 H)  with the stock moving higher

Downside early morph levels that can be considered : $524.77 (8/3 Low) with the stock moving lower

8-5

Traders are reporting taking off UNH at ~0.45. Stock has bounced since then. Be on guard for continued rollover.

BEARISH– Selling CALL Vertical

UNH $410

Consider selling the UNH 14AUG 430-440 CALL spread for roughly $1.10(min $0.90) with stock BELOW $411 (current $410)

Consider UNH 14AUG 430-440 CS

Risk: $10 vertical spread less premium collected of spread of $1.10 = $8.90 of risk

Max reward is $1.10

ATR: $11.56

Straddle: $16.45

Morph levels: Stock ABOVE $427.34 (7/30 High) consider making an adjustment with market that is moving HIGHER!