Ride with the Rebels Newsletter: 5/11

Record 6-0: +7U (Beta version)

Welcome to our first ‘Ride with the Rebels’ newsletter! Every week, we’ll send you an email with two sports betting picks with a write-up for why we like that bet. If you like what you see, feel free to ride with us. If you don’t, go ahead and fade us.

*Odds taken from DraftKings

5/12: NHL: Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings

This is it for the Edmonton Oilers.

They entered their first-round series against the Los Angeles Kings as a heavy favorite but have struggled to close out games. They have two of the best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and a solid supporting cast. They *should* be winning this series. But here they are, down 3-2 and fighting for their lives.

And that’s why the Market Rebels like them to win tonight (-140).

Nothing is more dangerous than a team facing elimination. Especially a team that ices as many offensive threats as Edmonton. McDavid has posted nine points in five games while Draisaitl has five goals in as many games. The Oilers have scored at least three goals in four of the five games played, including putting up eight in Game 3. Offense isn’t the problem. Defense is.

Goaltender Mike Smith has actually posted solid numbers with a save-percentage (SV%) of .930 and a goals-against-average (GAA) of 2.81. Those numbers won’t light the league on fire, but Edmonton is an offense-first team, so it’s about what you’d hope for. However, the defense in front of him has been less than stellar.

Defenseman Duncan Keith is a -3 in the series with one assist. Meanwhile, Tyson Barrie, who was signed to a massive deal for his offensive talent and power-play skills, has two assists and is a minus-one. Darnell Nurse has been suspended one game, so they’ll be down one of their physical players, but this will force the other defenders to be more careful on the ice.

While we don’t see the Oilers suddenly becoming a defense-first team overnight, they should play with enough emotion and physicality to force a Game 7. And if the team comes out flat, you can bet that McDavid will drag them kicking and screaming to a win.

Rebels pick: Edmonton Oilers ML (1U)

5/13: NHL: Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins

We’ve got a double dose of NHL picks this week as each first-round series nears its conclusion. These games get harder to pick as each playoff series nears its end, but one bet that we’ve consistently liked is the Over/Under of the Hurricanes/Bruins matchup.

The O/U is set at 5.5 and we’re hammering the Over (-120).

This is a bet that we don’t want to overthink. Every game between these two clubs has had at least six goals and the Over is 4-0-1. Boston is averaging over 4 goals-per-game when they have home ice advantage and Carolina has a ridiculous offense that can score at any time.

To add to that, the Bruins got smoked in Game 5, 5-1, and should come out looking to draw some blood with the season on the line. Expect this to be a shootout between two high-powered offenses.

If you’re feeling adventurous, you could parlay the over with the Bruins ML for a better payout, but we’re keeping it simple with the Over.

Rebels pick: Over 5.5 (1U)