Ride with the Rebels Newsletter: 5/19

Record 8-0: +9U (Beta version)

*Odds taken from DraftKings

5/19: NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Floirda Panthers

The second round of the NHL playoffs kicked off a few days ago and it’s been must-see TV. One of the most exciting series so far has been the ‘Battle of Florida’ between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers.

The Lightning took Game 1 with a decisive 4-1 win, but we’re ready for the Panthers to strike back. We actually liked the Panthers to win the first game but a disappointing performance by special teams doomed them. The power play had no idea what it wanted to do and couldn’t seem to create any sustained pressure in the offensive zone. Meanwhile, the penalty kill conceded three goals and were no match for the talent on Tampa. Game 2 should be a different story.

This is the first since 1996 that the Panthers have advanced to the second round of the playoffs, and they don’t want to squander that. They’re deeper up front than Tampa and aren’t dealing with injuries like their opponent. This team was the best in the league during the regular season and are kicking off the second round with two games at home. They dropped Game 1, now they need to even the series with a big win in Game 2.

Florida is favored on the ML with -160 odds. That’s a tad high for our tastes, even with Brayden Point sidelined. If the Panthers are going to win, we expect them to win by a couple. Give us the Puck Line at +150 odds.

Rebels Pick: Florida Panthers -1.5 (1U)

May 19: NBA: Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat

The NBA is in the middle of its playoff run, too, and there’s a line that the Rebels love.

Tonight, we’ve got an intriguing matchup between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat (-160). The Heat took Game 1 of the series, 118-107, but faced a Celtics team without Marcus Smart and Al Horford.

Smart has already been upgraded to probable on Boston’s injury report and that’s huge for the team. He’s averaging 15 points-per-game and over six assists. He’s also the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year. Getting him back on the court will immediately improve the team’s defense.

Meanwhile, Horford missed the opening game due to COVID protocols but could return if he provides two negative tests. He’s been upgraded to doubtful, but no official status was available at the time of this writing.

Smart coming back makes us like the Celtics in this game, but natural regression also has us leaning towards Boston.

Miami’s Jimmy Butler put up 41 points in Game 1. It was an incredible performance, but we don’t see that happening again, especially with Smart on the court. They have other weapons like Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo but shutting Butler down is going to be number one on Boston’s defensive adjustments. We don’t see him repeating that stat tonight.

This is a tough game to bet because the Heat are at home, but with reinforcements coming for the Celtics and the possibility of going down 2-0 in the series at stake, we’re taking the points and betting on Boston’s spread at +3.5 (-120). At the very least, they should keep it close all game. If you don’t want the points, then a bet on their ML (+135) will pay out more.

Rebels Pick: Boston Celtics +3.5 (1U)