Ride with the Rebels Newsletter: 7/14

Record: 7-9 (-1.44U)

*Odds taken from DraftKings

Wimbledon Update: Rafael Nadal had to withdraw from the tournament after suffering an abdominal tear (OUCH!). The bet was voided, and betters were refunded their money.

Last week was yet another 1-1 split, but we ended up losing money due to only throwing a half-unit on the NHL Draft. We’re now 0-2 on MLB picks because the White Sox STINK, so it’s probably time to take a break from baseball.

 

July 13- The Open Championship

The first round of the Open Championship is in action today and we’re jumping into some golf.

Due to this releasing in the middle of the round, odds are subject to change, but we’re going to lay down a couple of picks and you can decide what money looks best to you.

The 150th Open Championship is being played in Fife, Scotland and features big names such as Tiger Woods, Max Homa, Jon Rahm, and more. Cameron Young is the leader at the time of this writing with a score of -8 score and Rory McIlroy is following him up with a 6-under first round.

Golf is tough to bet because so much can happen over the course of a tournament, so we won’t be making a play on a winner. Instead, we’re looking at top-10 finishes.

Our pick is Xander Schauffele to finish in the top 10. He finished with a three-under-par first round and is currently T-10 but will likely be pushed outside of it as other groups progress through the round.

Schauffele won the past two tournaments he’s competed in and is a bet that offers positive money. If he can keep up the momentum he had today, he should have another finish in the top 10.

Rebel’s pick: Xander Schauffele to finish Top 10 @ +105 (1U)

 

July 16- UFC: Two-fight Parlay

We’ve got our first parlay! With golf already covered, the only sport around to really bet on this week (besides the NBA Summer League) is UFC.

It’s not a numbered card, but there are still some interesting fights to bet on and there’s two we like.

The first is Amanda Lemos going up against Michelle Waterson.

Lemos is heavily favored at -330. She has the three-inch reach advantage over Waterson and sports an 11-2-1 record. Both fighters are coming off losses.

Waterson is more of a grappler, preferring to take her opponents and wear them down on the mat to force a submission.

In the other corner, Lemos is a dangerous striker. Eight of her 11 wins have come via KO in the first round.

We’re taking Lemos because she has great takedown defense and the reach advantage.

You don’t need to take this pick, but it adds 77 more points to the parlay.

The other fight we’re betting on is the main event: Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez. This is another fight that comes down to a fighter that likes to grapple versus one that prefers striking.

Ortega wants this to be a fight that’s mainly on the mat. Rodriguez wants Ortega to fight him on his feet.

This is going to be close.

If Rodriguez can successfully defend against Ortega’s clinch attempts and stay standing, it favors him. He has a two-inch reach advantage and is three inches taller. Keeping Ortega to the perimeter and utilizing his strong legs will lead to a win.

But if he lets down his guard and isn’t quick to respond to Ortega’s advances, he’ll run the risk of losing fast.

Ortega is currently favored at -180 with Rodriguez coming in as a +155 underdog. Analysts favor Rodriguez by a slim margin in this fight and we’re siding with them to give our parlay a big boost.

Rebel’s Pick: Lemos and Rodriguez fight-lines parlay @ +232 (1U)

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