Trading Insights
Thursday Morning Rebel Brief: CFO Council Survey Results and More
After initially trading higher in the premarket, the major indices have given back their gains and turned mildly negative. SPDR S&P ETF $SPY is trading down this morning by 0.37%, the Invesco $QQQ Tech ETF is lower by 0.47%, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF ($DIA) is lower by 0.30%. The change in […]
After initially trading higher in the premarket, the major indices have given back their gains and turned mildly negative. SPDR S&P ETF $SPY is trading down this morning by 0.37%, the Invesco $QQQ Tech ETF is lower by 0.47%, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF ($DIA) is lower by 0.30%.
The change in market temperature came after the ECB made an announcement on economic policy (more on that later) alongside a series of hot US economic data. Let’s dive into all of that data and more, starting with polling results from the Global CFO Council.
CFO Council Survey Results Are In
At this year’s much anticipated Global CFO Council, CFO’s were polled about a variety of business and economic issues. These results were taken between May 12th and June 6th. Here are four key data points from the polling:
Business Risks
When polled, CFOs said the biggest risk to business was:
- Inflation (41%)
- Fed Policy (23%)
- Supply Chain (14%)
- Ukraine War/Cyber Attacks (9%)
Market Confidence
77% of CFOs polled believed that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will decline below 30,000 in the near future — roughly 9% lower than where the DJIA sits today. In comparison, 14% of CFOs believe that the Dow’s next stop is 40,000.
Rates
More than 80% of CFO’s predict that the 10-year yield will be above 3% by the end of this year.
Recession
More than two thirds (68%) of CFO’s predict a possible recession in the first half of 2023.
Cybersecurity
68% of CFOs say that they are seeing elevated spending in cybersecurity, and more than half say that they believe they feel better protected than they were last year.
ECB Says No More QE, Expect Rate Increases Next Month
The European Central Bank declares it will end quantitative easing practices — meaning that this measure will end the ECB’s bond buying programs. Additionally, the ECB will begin raising interest rates next month.
Euro currency and the rate markets have begun moving higher this morning in reaction to the move. Comparatively, US stock futures have given back their gains and turned negative in the premarket, as investors begin to position for next week’s Fed meeting where another 50-basis-point hike is to be expected.
US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Come In Hot
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims come in at 229,000 — 25,000 more than previously expected. The last time Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in this high was back onJanuary 14th (240,000). Continuing Claims came in at 1.36M, which matches last week’s revised count.
For more quick takes on this morning’s market-moving news, check out 60 seconds with Jon Najarian!
