Why Quantum Computing is Not a Threat to Bitcoin

Overtime, many have asked if future developments in quantum computing could pose a serious threat to the Bitcoin network. After all, Bitcoin and Ethereum are systems which are based on cryptography. With enough time, any encryption can be compromised with a brute force attack. Traditional systems are secure because any brute force attack would likely take multiple lifetimes to pose any relative threat to the network. Quantum computers may have the potential to reduce times of brute force attacks by providing the network with exponentially larger amounts of processing power.

What is Quantum Computing?

Quantum computers are new kinds of machines that promise an exponential leap from current processing power. With an exponential growth in today’s processing power, quantum computers will be able to solve problems that were not previously possible. Many of the largest tech corporations such as IBM & Google are participating in an arms race to develop quantum computers.

In classical computing, units of bits make up a computer. Bits are binary, either a one or zero. When interacting with a computer by typing on a keyboard, each letter typed is translated into a unique set of ones and zeros. These sets of ones and zeros can be switched on and off to digitally represent words on the interface.

In Quantum computing, instead of bits there are quantum bits or qubits. Qubits can be any combination of ones and zeros. Classical computing is similar to a coin landing on either heads or tails. Quantum computing is similar to a coin being flipped in the air. It is neither heads or tails but rather in multiple states at the same time, in quantum computing this concept is know as superposition. Today, classical computers still outperform quantum computers. While future quantum computers will likely create a paradigm shift in technology, quantum development is still in its infancy with many difficulties included in the process.

Why the Quantum Threat is Unlikely to be Targeted at Bitcoin:

Some speculate the NSA has already attained quantum computing capabilities which could be used to crack any bank account or nuclear launch code in the world. Ultimately, it does not matter if any security agency has this capability. This is due to a basic concept in security: if you have a very powerful secret weapon, you don’t use it until there is a very good reason to use it, or you are forced to use it.

An example of this occurred during WWII when the British code-breaking task unit Ultra, led by Alan Turing, gained access to Enigma: the German’s secret code system. The British had to work diligently to assure no German realized Enigma was compromised or else the Germans would simply change it. Therefore, Allied forces had to engage in parallel construction. If the British had intelligence of an incoming attack and wanted to prepare, they had to make it look as if they captured a German solder and intercepted the message. If the British failed to create a parallel reason for why they were aware of the attack, the Germans would become suspicious and change their code. When the British did not have a parallel reason, Winston Churchill let the city of Coventry burn to protect their secret intelligence. Thousands of people died as a result. If the NSA wants to keep their secret of quantum computing, they will likely wait to use it on something more important than Bitcoin, such as nuclear launch codes, global bank accounts, or military intelligence networks.

How Will Bitcoin Adapt to a Post-Quantum World?

An issue occurs when broad commercial availability for quantum computers emerges. This will create a transition period in which Bitcoin will have to switch its algorithms. Bitcoin was build with the quantum threat in mind and algorithms of all active wallets can be changed. However, inactive wallets which have lost private keys and cannot change the signing algorithm, will be captured by quantum computers. We will know when quantum computers exist when Satoshi’s coins move. This may be one of the reasons why they will move, but eventually they will move. For the rest of the ecosystem, we can migrate quite easily to another algorithm.
Ultimately, quantum computing is not as big of a threat as many think.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. Please do your research independently and make objective decisions. This article is intended to educate readers on the recent state of the cryptocurrency market. The author of the article owns cryptocurrency.