Your Trading Week Ahead — March 13th

Welcome to Your Trading Week Ahead for March 13th. Here’s what you need to know before you go…

Quick recap

Bears took full control of equity markets on Friday, snuffing out a brief early-morning rally off an optimistic tone from Vladimir Putin (interesting how markets pump on tone these days).

The Russian president reportedly claimed to see “positive shifts” in talks with Ukraine. However, traders saw the comments as vague and immediately sold into the rally. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) opened above $428 after trading as high as $433 premarket, before ultimately closing the day -1.27% at $420.

Friday’s session perfectly illustrates the type of volatile market we’re currently trading in. It was another choppy week of massive pops and drops. Investors are craving certainty. But global politics and shifting monetary policy have created a very confusing environment.

The S&P 500 closed the week lower by 2.87% at 4,204. The Dow finished down 1.99% at 32,944. Tech stocks were hammered once again, as the Nasdaq closed down 3.53% at 12,843.

While traders continue eyeing the developing conflict in Ukraine, they’ll be forced to juggle a wave of critical economic events in the week ahead.

What to watch this week

Producer Price Index

Following last week’s CPI data, we’ll get another fresh read on inflation with the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) due Tuesday morning.

The data, which tracks price changes for domestic producers, is expected to come in red-hot once again after January’s increase of 1% month-over-month.

Fed rate hike

The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday for what’s expected to be the long-awaited interest rate liftoff.

While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled support for a 25-basis point bump in his recent Congressional testimony, traders are patiently waiting for possible revisions to those plans with the European conflict in focus.

Retail sales data

Wednesday will also feature February’s retail sales data. According to Bloomberg, consensus economists are expecting a 0.9% rise in February versus January’s increase of 1.0%.

Earnings roundup

Earnings season continues with another packed week of popular stocks. We’ll hear quarterly data from FedEx (FDX), GameStop (GME), Accenture plc (ACN), Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP), SentinelOne, Inc. (S), and Lennar Corporation (LEN).

Here’s a full break down of stocks reporting:

Economic calendar

There are several events on the calendar this week with the potential to move markets. Here’s some of the most important things to watch:

• 1-year & 3-year inflation expectations (Feb.) – Monday at 11am ET
• Producer price index, final demand (Feb.) – Tuesday at 8:30am ET
• Empire state manufacturing index (Mar.) – Tuesday at 8:30am ET
• Retail sales + excluding autos (Feb.) – Wednesday at 8:30am ET
• Import price index + excluding fuels (Feb.) – Wednesday at 8:30am ET
• NAHB home builders’ index (Mar.) – Wednesday at 10am ET
• Business inventories (Jan. revision) – Wednesday at 10am ET
• FOMC announcement on fed funds rate – Wednesday at 2pm ET
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell news conference – Wednesday at 2:30pm ET
• Initial and continuing jobless claims – Thursday at 8:30am ET
• Building permits & housing starts (SAAR Feb.) – Thursday at 8:30am ET
• Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Mar.) – Thursday at 8:30am ET
• Industrial production index (Feb.) – Thursday at 9:15am ET
• Capacity utilization rate (Feb.) – Thursday at 9:15am ET
• Existing home sales (Feb. SAAR) – Friday at 10am ET
• Index of leading economic indicators (Feb.) – Friday at 10am ET

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