The Rebel Blog
Learn more about options trading, managing risk, and other trading tips from Market Rebellion.
S&P 500: Double Bottom, or Lower Lows Ahead?
The collective of stock market participants have been watching with bated breath to see what would happen when the S&P 500 reached its June low. It’s a level that we’ve talked about several times. Now we’ve arrived. If futures hold up, we’re looking at a nice bounce today. The question
The Growing Divide Between Monetary Policy and Energy Reality
Key Points Central banks at home and abroad use blunt tools like rate hikes to hammer demand, actively weakening the economy If the Fed gets its way: Roughly 4 million jobs will be lost U.S. GDP growth in 2022 will be a flat 0.2% The economy may spiral into a
Goldman Sachs Cuts S&P 500 Price Target By 16%
A few facts about where we stand for the remainder of the year. There are: 68 trading days left in 2022 5 trading days left until Q4 3 CPI reports (10/13, 11/10, 12/10) 2 FOMC meetings (11/02, 12/14) Between 100 and 125 basis points of rate hikes to come before the end of the year Several of Wall Street’s
FOMC & CPI Analysis: How Much Does the Fed Move the Market?
_ Fast Fed Facts Fed Day = Red Day? 60% of all Fed-influenced events in 2022 have resulted in negative S&P 500 closes When only closes >±1% are considered, 54.5% of S&P 500 closes were negative The average absolute move on Fed-influenced days in 2022 is ±1.82% FOMC meetings often
Powell Will “Keep At It” — But Who Cares? Focus on the Price, Not the Policy
Brief Overview of September FOMC Fed issues 75 basis point rate hike Fed median forecast shows rates at 4.6% in 2023, 3.9% in 2024 Fed inflation forecast: 2022: 5.4% 2023: 2.8% 2024: 2.3% 2025: 2.0% Fed GDP growth forecast: 2022: 0.2% 2023: 1.2% 2024: 1.7% 2025: 1.8% Between 100-125 basis
Put Buyers Crowd Into These 5 ETFs Ahead of September FOMC
_ Last week, the August CPI Report brought the market to its knees. While many expected falling energy prices to lead inflation lower, it wasn’t enough to counter the rapid rise in the cost of food, electricity, natural gas, and other key categories. As a result, the market opened low,
ChargePoint Options: A Bull Among Bears
Just because it’s a bear market, doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of bullish trades when it comes to Unusual Option Activity. Check out last week’s highly unusual options bets placed on ChargePoint (CHPT) amid the latest selloff: Despite Wednesday’s bearish action across markets, someone was expecting a BIG upside move
Bearish Engulfing Candle and Bear Flag Breakdown Ahead of FOMC
All four major indices (represented above by their corresponding ETFs: SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA) generated a bearish engulfing candle this week. In the midst of a choppy market, this isn’t necessarily the end of the world. But when combined with a bear flag breakdown (found in both QQQ and
Institutional Trader Risks $70M On Bullish Chargepoint Options Trade
In June of 2022, Market Rebellion covered the massive amount of unusual options activity identified in EV charging stock Chargepoint (CHPT). With Chargepoint at the bottom of a steep plunge, institutional call buyers stepped in with 12 big bullish purchases made over the course of 13 trading days, leading to
How to Trade 0DTE Options (With Real-Life Examples)
What is 0DTE? 0DTE options, otherwise known as “zero-days to expiration” options are option contracts where the expiration day occurs on the same day that they’re bought. While 0DTE’s skip out on “overnight risk”, these financial instruments are not for the faint of heart. Their high gamma and theta exposure
September CPI Report Disappoints the Market — Look Out Below
September CPI Report: August Consumer Price Index Month-over-Month: +0.1% vs -0.1% Expected August Consumer Price Index Ex-Food & Energy: +0.6% vs +0.3% Expected August Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year: Increase of +8.3% vs +8.1% Expected Core CPI year-over-year: Increase of +6.3% vs +6.1% Expected Fed Rate Outlook for September FOMC: 81% chance of
Bears & Bulls: The Battle Over S&P 500 Price Targets
America’s most popular sport is finally back, promising to entertain leagues of fans yet again. However, while the football season is just kicking off, for stock traders, September feels more like the playoffs. With only 78 trading days left in 2022, Wall Street’s brightest minds are still split on where
Tuberville and Pelosi: Two Recent “Well-Timed” Congressional Trades
At Market Rebellion, we call monitoring unusual options activity “following the smart money”. Those “smart money” trades might be institutions with access to experienced research teams and trading algorithms, making educated guesses on where stock prices are heading next. Or they might be the result of “in-the-know” traders who have
3 Technical Levels SPY Traders Must Know Ahead of the September CPI Report
The S&P 500 is sitting on a knife’s edge. The September CPI report and the FOMC meeting to follow could act as a decisive catalyst in the battle between bears and bulls. Source: TradingView, Market Rebellion Last month’s Jackson Hole meeting saw Fed Chair Jerome Powell shake up the market
Gustavo Arnal, Ryan Cohen, and the BBBY Insider Trading Lawsuit
BBBY CFO Commits Suicide Amid Insider Trading Lawsuit On Friday, September 2nd, Bed Bath & Beyond’s CFO Gustavo Arnal tragically committed suicide by jumping out of New York’s Jenga Tower. This follows a pending lawsuit for alleged insider trading and securities fraud. The lawsuit alleges that CFO Gustavo Arnal conspired
Nord Stream, the European Energy Shortage, and What it Means for the Market
Friday started positive. The market was trading higher by about a percent after what many called a “goldilocks” unemployment number. However, by noon the rally had already faded after energy giant Gazprom announced that the Nord Stream Pipeline would be shut down indefinitely, citing “issues that required special repair”. The
Bears Feast on NVDA: 12,000 Puts Bought Directly Before BIG News
12,000 puts bought in a single purchase for $2.14M on 8/26 are now worth over $36M. Was this just a lucky guess, or did this institutional trader know about the BIG NEWS that was about to drop just days after their bearish purchase? Wednesday night, NVIDIA surprised investors with an
Staying on Top of the Action: How to Trade Double Tops & Double Bottoms
Double tops and double bottoms are two of the most easily identifiable technical patterns, but the insights that they provide can be invaluable. What is a Double Top? What is a Double Bottom? In technical analysis, a double top occurs when the price of a stock rejects at upper resistance
How to Trade and Identify Triangle Patterns, PLUS Real-Life Example in CRWD
Triangle patterns are a staple of technical analysis. By the end of this article, you will understand the logic behind triangle patterns, what the three types of triangle pattern look like, and how to trade them. Triangle patterns are some of the most common and powerful technical patterns. Identifying technical
While the West Tightens, China Gets Dovish (Unusual Options Activity Inside)
Image source: Pixabay Key Information: China’s Central Bank continues to loosen monetary policy against the backdrop of steep rate hikes in the West. On August 24th, China passed a $148B stimulus package to support economic growth. On August 26th the US and China reached a deal that would prevent the