Saturday, September 26, 2026★ Market Rebellion ★Vol. CXIV · No. 517

The Trader's Ledger

All the trades, alerts & insights that fit the screen.

DON’T MAKE THIS TRADE: Why Trades Like THIS Can Blow Up Your Entire Portfolio

On Friday, one writer suggested that traders “could” sell short straddles (a naked call and a naked put) against Apple to “take a bite” out of volatility. Our advice: Do not do this. Don’t take our word for it — Ask Melvin Capital why you shouldn’t take on infinite risk trading strategies.

By Justin Nugent · Sep 30, 2022

Trading Insights

RebelCon Recap: Inside Market Rebellion’s 2022 Trading Bootcamp

Market Rebels from across the nation descended upon Dallas, TX for a LIVE-trading experience unlike anything the world of finance has ever seen. RebelCon 2022 proved to be a strategy-packed conference led by Jon and Pete Najarian — featuring expert market strategists, technicians, and educators. And with a star-studded lineup of special guests like Tom […]

By Chris Bishop · Sep 29, 2022

Trading Insights

S&P 500: Double Bottom, or Lower Lows Ahead?

The collective of stock market participants have been watching with bated breath to see what would happen when the S&P 500 reached its June low. It’s a level that we’ve talked about several times. Now we’ve arrived. If futures hold up, we’re looking at a nice bounce today. The question on everyone’s mind: Will it […]

By Justin Nugent · Sep 27, 2022

Trading Insights

The Growing Divide Between Monetary Policy and Energy Reality

Powell’s fight against inflation threatens to throw the U.S. economy into a recession. Meanwhile, a perfect storm of energy-related supply shocks stand ready to exacerbate the pain felt by households and businesses.

By Justin Nugent · Sep 26, 2022

Trading Insights

Goldman Sachs Cuts S&P 500 Price Target By 16%

A few facts about where we stand for the remainder of the year. There are: 68 trading days left in 2022 5 trading days left until Q4 3 CPI reports (10/13, 11/10, 12/10) 2 FOMC meetings (11/02, 12/14) Between 100 and 125 basis points of rate hikes to come before the end of the year Several of Wall Street’s top firms, like JPMorgan, Fundstrat, BMO, and more still […]

By Justin Nugent · Sep 23, 2022

Trading Insights

FOMC & CPI Analysis: How Much Does the Fed Move the Market?

_ Fast Fed Facts Fed Day = Red Day? 60% of all Fed-influenced events in 2022 have resulted in negative S&P 500 closes When only closes >±1% are considered, 54.5% of S&P 500 closes were negative The average absolute move on Fed-influenced days in 2022 is ±1.82% FOMC meetings often yield larger S&P 500 moves […]

By Justin Nugent · Sep 22, 2022

Trading Insights

Powell Will “Keep At It” — But Who Cares? Focus on the Price, Not the Policy

Brief Overview of September FOMC Fed issues 75 basis point rate hike Fed median forecast shows rates at 4.6% in 2023, 3.9% in 2024 Fed inflation forecast: 2022: 5.4% 2023: 2.8% 2024: 2.3% 2025: 2.0% Fed GDP growth forecast: 2022: 0.2% 2023: 1.2% 2024: 1.7% 2025: 1.8% Between 100-125 basis points of rate hikes are […]

By Justin Nugent · Sep 21, 2022

Trading Insights

Put Buyers Crowd Into These 5 ETFs Ahead of September FOMC

_ Last week, the August CPI Report brought the market to its knees. While many expected falling energy prices to lead inflation lower, it wasn’t enough to counter the rapid rise in the cost of food, electricity, natural gas, and other key categories. As a result, the market opened low, and continued lower. By the […]

By Justin Nugent · Sep 20, 2022

Trading Insights

ChargePoint Options: A Bull Among Bears

Just because it’s a bear market, doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of bullish trades when it comes to Unusual Option Activity. Check out last week’s highly unusual options bets placed on ChargePoint (CHPT) amid the latest selloff: Despite Wednesday’s bearish action across markets, someone was expecting a BIG upside move in CHPT — a leader […]

By Chris Bishop · Sep 19, 2022

Trading Insights

Bearish Engulfing Candle and Bear Flag Breakdown Ahead of FOMC

All four major indices (represented above by their corresponding ETFs: SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA) generated a bearish engulfing candle this week. In the midst of a choppy market, this isn’t necessarily the end of the world. But when combined with a bear flag breakdown (found in both QQQ and DIA), the market is in […]

By Justin Nugent · Sep 19, 2022

Trading Insights

Institutional Trader Risks $70M On Bullish Chargepoint Options Trade

In June of 2022, Market Rebellion covered the massive amount of unusual options activity identified in EV charging stock Chargepoint (CHPT). With Chargepoint at the bottom of a steep plunge, institutional call buyers stepped in with 12 big bullish purchases made over the course of 13 trading days, leading to a 56% run-up in the […]

By Justin Nugent · Sep 16, 2022

Trading Insights

September CPI Report Disappoints the Market — Look Out Below

September CPI Report: August Consumer Price Index Month-over-Month: +0.1% vs -0.1% Expected August Consumer Price Index Ex-Food & Energy: +0.6% vs +0.3% Expected August Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year: Increase of +8.3% vs +8.1% Expected Core CPI year-over-year: Increase of +6.3% vs +6.1% Expected Fed Rate Outlook for September FOMC: 81% chance of 75 basis point hike, 19% […]

By Justin Nugent · Sep 13, 2022

Trading Insights

Bears & Bulls: The Battle Over S&P 500 Price Targets

America’s most popular sport is finally back, promising to entertain leagues of fans yet again. However, while the football season is just kicking off, for stock traders, September feels more like the playoffs. With only 78 trading days left in 2022, Wall Street’s brightest minds are still split on where the S&P will end the […]

By Justin Nugent · Sep 9, 2022

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